Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations: Russia Aims to Stay Engaged in the Process – Alexander Skakov

The intensification of Russian diplomacy regarding the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations is due to Russia’s intention to remain engaged in the process. This was stated by Alexander Skakov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, in an interview with Armenia Today.

“If Russia does not engage in this, then the West will. Considering the level of Russia’s relations with Washington or Brussels, Moscow is not particularly interested in this issue,” he noted.

According to the expert, during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent visit to Baku, the emphasis was primarily placed not on resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue but on unblocking transport communications.

The Russian political scientist believes that the recent increase in Azerbaijan's gas supplies to the EU will not affect Russian-Azerbaijani relations. “This is business, it is clear that gas is currently in short supply in the European Union, and Azerbaijan is simply taking advantage of the moment,” the expert stated.

Skakov disagreed with the opinion of the President of Azerbaijan that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is resolved and that the Armenian side should not raise this matter in international forums. “Russia's official position stems from the fact that the Karabakh issue is not closed. If that were the case, why are our peacekeepers there and what functions do they perform? As long as Russian peacekeepers are present, the issue cannot be considered closed,” the expert declared.

He also pointed out that the future agreement on the extension of the Russian peacekeepers' deployment in Artsakh will depend on various external factors. He reminded that according to the trilateral agreement, the peacekeeping mission can be terminated at any time at the request of one of the parties. “In principle, Azerbaijan can choose not to wait for the completion of that mission. But I believe that it will not do so; it will tolerate it because, in fact, it is not in its interests. What will happen in 2-3 years will depend on Russia's situation, its relations with the West, and the situation in Ukraine. If Russia has the potential to remain in Nagorno-Karabakh, it will certainly find an opportunity for that. It depends on how strong Russia's position will be,” our interlocutor concluded.