Risk of Nuclear Weapon Use at Highest Level Since Cold War: SIPRI

The risk of nuclear weapon use has reached its highest level since the "Cold War." This is due to the fact that nations in the "nuclear club" are actively increasing their arsenals. This was stated in a report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

According to experts at the institute, "The risk of nuclear weapon use is now at the highest level since the peak of the Cold War." Currently, there are "clear signs that the process of nuclear disarmament has come to an end," and "all powers in the 'nuclear club' (Russia, the USA, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea) are increasing the number of warheads and modernizing their nuclear arsenals," the experts noted.

The increase in international tensions is also fueled by the fact that, according to researchers, most of these countries are "intensifying their nuclear rhetoric," and "the role of nuclear weapons in their military strategies is becoming increasingly significant." According to SIPRI, all countries in the "nuclear club" are actively developing plans related to nuclear weapons or expanding existing arsenals. In particular, "the UK has announced an increase in the limit on its nuclear warhead stockpiles," deciding "not to publicly disclose their numbers," while France has "officially begun the program to create third-generation submarines armed with nuclear weapons."

The institute also notes that India and Pakistan are "increasing their nuclear arsenals and developing new delivery systems," while Israel is "modernizing its nuclear arsenal." Simultaneously, North Korea is "actively testing nuclear weapons" and, according to experts, has "already produced 20 warheads with sufficient resources to produce an additional 45-55 warheads." SIPRI experts indicate that satellite images show that 300 new launch silos are being constructed in China.

The report states that the situation is exacerbated by the fact that "the relationships among global powers have significantly deteriorated," leading to a number of issues in the field of nuclear diplomacy. In particular, negotiations on strategic stability between Russia and the USA (which account for more than 90% of the world's nuclear weapons) have effectively stalled since the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.

Furthermore, permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, Russia, France, the USA, and the UK) have not joined the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding Iran's development activities, and negotiations surrounding Tehran's nuclear program are still unresolved.

SIPRI experts conclude that, given the changes observed in the military strategies of leading global powers and the stagnation of disarmament efforts, the world is likely to soon witness an actual increase in nuclear arsenals for the first time since the "Cold War." This trend could be long-term and may "last into the next decade," according to the Stockholm institute.