The Next 4 Weeks Will Be Crucial for Ukraine: The New York Times

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration believes the next four weeks will determine the final outcome of the war in Ukraine, with long-term consequences that will affect the map of Europe for decades to come. This was reported to The New York Times by several senior American officials on the condition of anonymity.

If Russia can make a breakthrough to the east, officials say, President Putin will be able to present the limited military operation as a success within Russia, claiming that he has protected the pro-Russian minority in Ukraine. At that point, he may seek a ceasefire but will simultaneously be able to use Donbas as leverage in any negotiations.

However, if Ukrainian forces can halt the Russian offensive in Donbas, according to the officials, President Putin will face a difficult choice: either direct more combat power to a war that could last for years or seriously negotiate a peace settlement. The first option could mean full national mobilization and is politically risky for the Kremlin's leader, officials say.

The Pentagon believes that with the right weapons and sustained motivation, Ukrainian forces could not only stop the Russian advance but also push it back, one of the publication’s sources stated.