Is There a Risk of Strong Earthquake in Armenia? Scientist Discusses Continuous Tremors in Bavra

The Senior Researcher of the Seismology and Earthquake Prediction Laboratory at the Institute of Geophysics and Engineering Seismology named after Nazarov of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Mariam Mkrtchyan, has provided details regarding her research on the potential for strong earthquakes.

In an interview with Armenpress, Mkrtchyan noted that she does not currently see a danger of a strong earthquake in Armenia. However, she added that if there are any unusual processes preceding a strong earthquake, which are not normal but exhibit anomalous characteristics, it leads to the conclusion that a strong earthquake may occur. 'My research is a step towards predicting earthquakes, which we need to approach through further studies so that one day we can predict them. But predicting also has no benefit. We must be able to protect ourselves and build well,' emphasized the expert.

She explained that her research was conducted using a retrospective approach. 'I analyzed an earthquake that has already occurred; I went back and studied its seismic background, so it was an anticipated event. The term 'anticipated', which is included in my research, does not apply to the present time,' she clarified, adding that no one can predict an earthquake in advance.

Addressing the continuous tremors recorded in the Bavra area, Mkrtchyan stated that she does not believe a strong earthquake will occur there; if it happens, it will be of low magnitude. 'That region constantly experiences tremors. There can be 1,000 minor earthquakes within a year, and currently, there is no expectation of a strong one, because the energy has sufficiently dissipated,' she noted.

The work was carried out within the framework of thematic and basic funding programs of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia's Institute of Geophysics and Engineering Seismology. The main results of the research were reported at the 'Challenges of Geocosmos' conference held in Saint Petersburg and the '30 Years After the Spitak Earthquake: Experience and Prospects' conference held in Yerevan. A proposal has been received to submit an article to the 'Universal Journal of Geoscience' journal.