Worrisome Trends in Mortality: A Sharp Increase in Deaths Recorded

According to an analysis by the Heratsi Institute, data released by the Statistical Committee shows that there were 6,030 recorded deaths in Armenia during January-February 2022, which is an 11% increase compared to the same period in 2021 and a 21% increase from 2020.

This information was shared by Armen Muradyan, the rector of Yerevan State Medical University, on his Facebook page. While the first two months of this year saw the fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic driven by the Omicron variant, the number of COVID-19 related deaths decreased by 5.1%, totaling 465.

The lighter course of the disease during the fifth wave is also evidenced by a dramatic 3.1-fold reduction in pneumonia cases caused by COVID-19 compared to the previous year, as well as a 24% lower incidence of pneumonia with unspecified pathogens.

Thus, it is concerning that there is a significant increase in mortality rates from socially significant diseases in a relatively more favorable epidemiological situation, indicating that a causative analysis is necessary for ensuring the effectiveness of public health programs.

In particular, deaths from diseases of the circulatory system rose by 13.3%, and by 17% compared to January-February 2020. The increase in deaths from respiratory diseases was 41% (33% compared to the same time period in 2020).

These trends may be related to what is referred to as long COVID syndrome, which affects about one-third of patients, as well as the indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the healthcare system and individual health.

During the first two months of this year, deaths from neoplasms also increased by about 3%, which could be correlated with a significant decline in the detection rate of malignant neoplasms in the early stages (I-II phase).

Overall, continuous monitoring of mortality rates, swift identification of the causes of recorded trends, and an appropriate response are crucial for reducing mortality and improving the demographic situation.