What Will Happen in the Coming Weeks? Geghamyan on Possible Developments Around Artsakh and Armenia

Based on the logic of regional processes in recent weeks, available information from open sources, as well as various leaks and campaigns, there are currently two possible and highly probable scenarios for the development of the situation. This was stated by Turkish studies expert Varujan Geghamyan.

He particularly noted: “Option A. The de facto authority of Armenia will sign a so-called ‘peace agreement’ with Azerbaijan in the coming weeks, which will not only include recognition of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and the legal renunciation of the Armenian state in Artsakh, but also new territorial concessions to Azerbaijan in the Tavush, Ararat, and Syunik regions, as well as the opening of ‘Turkic corridors’ through Syunik. This new signing will be justified by the desire to avoid a new large-scale war, for which the information preparation has long been underway by the capitulator and his group. Immediately after signing the agreement with Azerbaijan, the border with Turkey will also be opened. Armenia will become a fully Turkish sphere of influence, burying not only the idea of the liberation of Artsakh but also the possibility of having an Armenian state in the coming decades.

Option B. A large-scale military offensive by Azerbaijan against Armenia will begin in the coming days or weeks, not only in Artsakh but also in Syunik, Ararat, and several other directions. Naturally, with the current de facto pro-Turkish leadership, our possibilities to organize effective resistance are severely limited, and relying on the support of any other state or ally, especially if the leadership of the Republic of Armenia is not willing to fight, is naivety (the maximum that third countries will do is to ensure their share of interests). The authority that has already lost a war through its own ignorance and has signed a capitulation once will do so a second time without any hindrance.

As we can guess, the only possible solution to save the statehood of Armenia is the removal of the current de facto pro-Turkish government both on the battlefield and in the diplomatic arena and the immediate unification of the remaining national resources.