Turkey Threatens to Mobilize Iranian Azerbaijanis

Amid the rising tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, Turkey has begun to openly support its strategic ally, Azerbaijan, which has effectively become a de facto satellite state following the 44-day war. President Erdoğan echoes the claims of Azerbaijan's authorities regarding the Azerbaijani factor in Iran. Estimates suggest that the number of Azerbaijanis in Iran ranges from 15 to 30 million.

Turkey and Baku seek to utilize the Azerbaijani population in Iran as a fifth column or a means of influence against the Iranian military-political leadership. Turkey is effectively threatening to mobilize Iranian Azerbaijanis if that country initiates military action against the Republic of Azerbaijan. Iran has always responded very harshly to any interference in its internal affairs.

Of course, Ankara and Baku have long tried to cultivate their influence agents in Iranian Azerbaijan, but Iran's intelligence services and military will prevent any secessionist attempts. The Turkish-Iranian geopolitical rivalry will continue, but both Ankara and Tehran are likely to avoid direct military confrontations.

However, if Azerbaijan provides its territory to various Sunni jihadist groups or Israel for operations against Iran, Azerbaijani territory will become a target for Iranian armed forces.