Aliyev's Renewed Aggression and Provocative Attitude Towards Iran Could Undermine Azerbaijan's Security

Hope for de-escalation of the existing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan, which arose following a phone conversation between the foreign ministers of the two countries, was short-lived. This was reported by Tert.am and discussed in an article published in Responsible Statecraft by Eldar Mamedov, a former diplomat at the Latvian embassy in Washington and Madrid.

Analyzing the current situation, the author notes that days after the ministers' conversation, Ilham Aliyev accused Iran of using the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh to transport drugs to Europe and Russia. Iran's Foreign Ministry responded to Aliyev's "shocking statements" condemning them. In a bid to escalate the anti-Iranian campaign, the Baku regime has arrested several Azerbaijani Shia clerics considered "pro-Iranian," including the former imam of Baku's Friday Mosque, Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, and the editor-in-chief of one of the religious websites, Sardar Babaev, who has been charged with treason.

As the author points out, Baku is attempting to bolster its reputation in the U.S. and the EU through this case. "These recent events clearly indicate that at least at this moment, Aliyev has no desire to reduce the tensions in relations with Tehran. Baku's military success against Armenia has clearly inspired him to openly challenge his southern neighbor. When Iran was conducting large-scale military exercises near the Azerbaijani border, pro-government Azerbaijani websites were reporting that the arsenal of the Islamic State did not match Azerbaijan's high-tech equipment obtained from Israel and Turkey. Aliyev hopes that Ankara and Tel Aviv's military and diplomatic support will serve as a sufficient deterrent against Tehran," the author writes, adding that Israeli support should translate into U.S. backing, especially as the prospects for restoring the nuclear deal with Iran remain uncertain.

In the author's opinion, Aliyev's confidence is misplaced and counterproductive. Iran's military exercises near Azerbaijan's borders were aimed not at preparing for an invasion but rather at drawing Baku's attention and demonstrating that Iran does not regard its neighbor's policies favorably.

According to the source, the situation in Azerbaijan is different from other countries where Tehran operates successfully through proxies, as in Iraq and Lebanon. While a large number of Shia believers live in Azerbaijan, they have been repressed for years, initially during the Soviet era of atheism, and later during the post-independence years amidst pro-Turkish nationalism. However, the government recently changed its stance towards the Shia population, now collaborating with authoritative religious leaders to create a "national Shia" identity that will politically align as a state religion and will not be dependent on Iran.

Nevertheless, there exists a significant mass of people in the country dissatisfied with corruption and socio-economic inequality, which has become glaringly apparent under the Aliyev regime. After Aliyev's repression of secular opposition, it is likely that discontent will take on a religious-political form, which Tehran may exploit in the long run.

The recent outbreak of conflict between Baku and Tehran has effectively awakened long-dormant Iranian perceptions of the Caucasus as a "lost province, which separated from the Russian Empire in the 19th century." The rise of Iranian nationalism, both in religious and secular forms, is another long-term consequence that Aliyev and his supporters have failed to anticipate. One of its repercussions, according to the author, is that Tehran has already begun to turn towards Yerevan, ironically rendering Baku's claims of Iran's pro-Armenia stance into a reality. The author notes that Iran has chosen Armenia as a partner in the North-South project to open a trade route.

Iran possesses key deterrent capabilities—missiles that can strike the entire territory of Azerbaijan. It has already demonstrated its ability to deliver precise strikes towards Saudi Arabian oil fields.

"Undoubtably, such a strike would signify massive escalation and lead to retaliation, likely involving Turkey's participation, which is why the threshold for launching a strike is quite high. However, Iranian leaders have previously shown confidence in indicating that if they are cornered, they will not hesitate to strike at presumed enemies. Thus, Aliyev's renewed aggression and provocative attitude towards Iran could undermine Azerbaijan's security in the long term," the author concludes.