More Powerful Forces Stand Behind Baku-Tehran Tensions Than Azerbaijan: Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky

168.am spoke with Orientalist Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky about the complex geopolitical environment forming in the region and the obstacles emerging in the relationships between regional players. In the context of recent developments, he expressed the opinion that more powerful forces stand behind the Baku-Tehran tensions than Azerbaijan itself.

According to him, both Iran’s traditional issues with the US and Israel, along with new regional challenges, play a significant role in the regional situation. Iran observes that Turkey's influence in the region has increased following the war, and Azerbaijan is closely cooperating with Israel, adjusting its tactics and hardening its stance to maintain its interests in this and a larger region.

“Naturally, strengthening the military component is one of the steps that Iran deemed necessary, as it has never used the military factor for any purpose in the South Caucasus, while its neighbors Turkey and Israel are accumulating and enhancing military force. This is concerning from Iran’s perspective, considering the problems it has with Israel, the US, and other countries in the Middle East,” said Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky.

“At this stage, no acute scenarios are foreseeable, yet complex processes and mixed confrontations will continue over influence in the region. The tensions surrounding Iran are likely to persist as the post-war situation in the region is not favorable for Iran. Iran understands that Turkey is pursuing the realization of the Great Turan project, a key component of which is the connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, for which there is currently a struggle. This is a significant cause for concern, presenting a new security situation and new threats for Iran,” he added.

Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky stated that Iran is trying to navigate this complex arrangement both locally and by deepening its ties with Moscow, adopting the right policy regarding the nuclear deal, and bringing other countries from Asia into the region. “Much will also depend on the decisions of smaller countries. How will the ‘3+3’ format work, with the participation of Turkey, Iran, and Russia, or how does the US view this project and how will it position itself? To clarify all of this, certain processes need to take place,” he concluded.