Turkey Will Do Everything to Annex Syunik: Arman Abovyan

Former MP Arman Abovyan wrote on his Facebook page: “Analyzing the situation in the region, we can state that the geopolitical shocks around Armenia and Artsakh are only gaining momentum. It is clear that Iran's active involvement in shaping a new geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus was both expected and unexpected. Specifically, while the involvement of the Iranian factor in the regional 'division' was anticipated in one form or another, Iran's aggressive behavior was somewhat unforeseen.

Iran essentially pushed itself into the process of regional division of influence zones through overt military threats directed against Azerbaijan. Agree that Aliyev's boorish behavior, who, with the instigation of Turkey and Israel, positions himself as the 'center of the universe,' could not fail to drive the Iranians towards a systematic and meticulously thought-out 'humiliation' of Azerbaijan and Aliyev personally. Let us not forget that we are located at the crossroads of the East, and the leader's authority plays a major role in the political arrangement.

It is still too early to draw conclusions, but there are several points that should be noted to fully understand the picture: 1. Iran has explicitly stated that it will not allow the transnational status of logistical hubs threatening its northern borders (corridor). This pertains to the so-called 'Zangezur corridor' or the Syunik road. 2. For Turkey, the primary goal is to 'scoop' the Syunik region from Armenia, as the annexation of Syunik is the main objective, essence, and prize following Azerbaijan's involvement in the Armenian catastrophe. 3. Neither the Russians nor the Iranians have reached an understanding with Turkey regarding Syunik, since for both Russia and Iran, it is absolutely unacceptable to allow the emergence of a Turkish-Azerbaijani military-logistical wedge through Armenia. 4. Paradoxically, in this specific case, the interests of not only Russia and Iran but also China, India, the USA, and the EU have coincided. Much is at stake here—from the resumption of negotiations around the Iranian nuclear program to the transnational global game known as the North-South Road, or, if you will, an alternative path to Europe and Russia for global players—as opposed to Turkey’s vision. 5. However, Turkey will do everything to annex Syunik, as the physical reunification with Azerbaijan is extremely important for implementing the 'Great Turkey' project. Without this, Turkey is doomed to economic decline in the coming 5-10 years.

Israel stands out here, viewing Azerbaijan as one of the main and reliable footholds for a potential strike against Iran. Especially considering that the USA, under Biden's administration, is categorically opposed to Israel's escalation plans towards Iran, which in turn does not negate the Jewish state's determination to force Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program by all means necessary. According to all analytical calculations from the last two years, it becomes clear that Iran is already a country that possesses a GREATER nuclear club, which is UNACCEPTABLE for Israel. Given that Israel has been fully mastering the nuclear 'triad' since the 1960s and 70s, the situation resembles a deadlock.

But let us return to the region. It is clear that Iran does not intend to retreat, and the Turks likewise. The Russians also will not back down, as they understand that after Armenia's dismemberment, Turkey will immediately begin to slice off the Russian North Caucasus, moving into Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, the Volga region, and Crimea. It seems that in the current situation, no one intends to yield positions, which is equally good and bad for Armenians.

P.S. I intentionally did not mention the position of the current authorities of Armenia, because despite their extremely tolerant attitude towards the Turks and Azerbaijanis, thank God, nothing depends on them and however unpleasant and offensive it may be for us, it is better than playing the destructive game of 'peace' with the Turks.