The Region and Us: A Political Scientist Presents Several Scenarios

Political scientist Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan has presented several probable and improbable scenarios regarding regional developments on his Facebook page.

“What to expect from the geopolitical 'wars' of Iran, Turkey, and Russia? Likely and unlikely scenarios:

1. The authorities of the three countries are actively discussing regional developments, making certain decisions and agreements behind each other’s backs, and then accusing one another while displaying power. However, in the end, nothing materializes. The situation is frozen until more opportune times arise.
2. Russia is doing everything possible so that the benefits from the recent war in Artsakh are not limited to simply increasing its military presence in the region, but that Azerbaijan also joins the EAEU and the entirety of the region comes under its control. Iran and Turkey would then just scratch their heads and proceed to solving their traditional issues.
3. Whoever can escape takes something with them: Russia takes Armenia and the remnants of Artsakh, Turkey takes Azerbaijan along with pieces of Artsakh and Syunik, while Iran, since there’s nothing left to take, probably takes Nakhchivan.
4. Iran, Turkey, and Russia sit down to negotiate and sign a new Kars Agreement, making possible 1000 and 1 new scenarios.
5. The three great powers create geopolitical and/or civilizational alliances against each other and begin to push adversaries out of the region.
6. The West comes in and mixes everyone’s cards, starting a new game.