Concerning Situation: What Are Russian Experts Predicting

As regional media discusses the possibility of a meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev, it has been revealed that a face-to-face meeting will take place soon between Vladimir Putin and Nikol Pashinyan. This was announced the day before by the Chairwoman of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of Russia, Valentina Matviyenko, during a meeting with the Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia, Alen Simonyan. According to Matviyenko, "Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Prime Minister Nikol Vovaevich Pashinyan have already held three personal meetings and 14 phone calls this year, and are preparing for a new meeting in the near future." It is worth noting that the last meeting between Pashinyan and Putin occurred after the elections in Armenia, when Vladimir Putin personally congratulated Pashinyan on his victory. During that meeting, Putin mentioned that the election results are important for everyone, especially for Armenia and the Armenian people, indicating that such difficult and acute issues can only be resolved given the opportunity for effective collaboration, which fundamentally requires the trust of the people. "You have that; the results of the elections demonstrated this, which is very important; this is actually the most significant aspect. In such difficult times for the country, this is the most crucial condition for further development," said Putin.

The first post-war meeting between Putin and Pashinyan occurred earlier this year, on January 11, during which a trilateral meeting with Aliyev also took place, leading to the signing of a tripartite statement. It is also notable that this upcoming meeting occurs against a backdrop of Iran tightening its influence in the region, rising tensions between Tehran and Baku, emerging elements of resolution in Armenian-Turkish relations, and the recent high-level Russian-Turkish negotiations in Sochi.

In an interview with 168.am, Russian political analyst Alexey Malashenko stated that such a meeting is certainly necessary, considering the enormous problems that need resolution around Armenia, the most important of which is the question of demarcation and delimitation, along with the issue of developing a new road geography for the region. However, he noted that we live in an ever-changing geopolitical situation. "Today, there is a much more pressing and regionally threatening issue: the situation around Armenia, the intensification of Iran-Azerbaijan tensions, or Iran’s new positioning, because Iran is beginning to notice new threats in the areas controlled by its neighbor Azerbaijan," Malashenko remarked. He pointed out that in recent weeks, there has been noticeable escalation in rhetoric and actions from both sides, with significant military buildup and equipment accumulation in border areas, as it seems that two large-scale military exercises are underway facing each other, involving numerous players, and daily rising statements requiring coordination among the parties.

The security environment has undergone significant changes in the South Caucasus since the 44-day war; a new situation has not yet formed, and currently, the region is in a completely new context that could have seemed unimaginable five years ago. Russia is also trying to understand how Iran’s new government will operate with Russia and what messages it is sending to Moscow. Today, all attention is directed towards Iran’s neighborhood, which is also a zone of Russian influence, but Iran's main issue lies with Israel first, followed by Turkey. Iran understands that the military factor of Turkey and Azerbaijan, within the logic of current developments, will continue to deepen and grow in its vicinity. The situation around the Goris-Kapan road has caused Iran to express its dissatisfaction and seek a new positioning in the region," emphasized Malashenko.

According to him, Iran is also trying to "sense" Armenia's disposition at this stage. "At this point, we see that there are contacts between Armenia and Iran, and at the rhetorical level, no significant problems are noticeable; the parties reassure each other that there will be no actions against one another, and mutual interests will be respected. I believe a broader work is underway that is understandably not being discussed. There are many topics to talk about at this stage, as the current configuration of forces in the region, post-war agreements, and the expectations from one another are very much present on the public agenda. This is a very complex phase; in fact, one year after the great war over Artsakh, the region is in an unprecedentedly complicated phase, as the players involved are militarized countries such as Turkey, Iran, Israel, and Azerbaijan, creating a concerning situation. Essentially, Iran is opposed to the post-war agreements, which indirectly also goes against Russia, as there is a wide range of issues to discuss here since the new Iranian government's policies affect the regional realities that have formed after the war and still need to be shaped," concluded Malashenko.