Azerbaijan Has Become a Target for Iran, Iran Will Attempt to Resort to Proxy Wars, Analyst Says

The defeat of the Armenian side in the Second Karabakh War has disrupted the power balance in the region that was formed after the collapse of the USSR and the First Karabakh War, which is a direct consequence of the ongoing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan. This opinion was expressed by political analyst Argishti Kiviryana on the TALK TIME program, addressing the current regional developments and, in particular, the escalating tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan.

“Iran's activity against Azerbaijan is largely motivated by the serious threats it sees to its interests. In addition, in recent years and during the war, Azerbaijan has come under the dominance of Turkey and Israel, which they cannot tolerate. Of course, Iran now primarily identifies Israel as its main target, but there is also the Turkish factor,” Kiviryana noted.

Azerbaijan was formerly a province of Iran, relinquished to Russia during the early 19th century Russo-Persian wars as a result of the Treaty of Gulistan, leading to the transfer of a significant part to Russia, while the Treaty of Turkmenchay transferred the regions of Yerevan and Nakhchivan. Under those treaties, Iran had ceded Azerbaijan to Russia and not to Turkey, and therefore, for Iran, the question is thus: if Russia has withdrawn from Azerbaijan, then they rightfully can consider returning, especially since Azerbaijan has become a province of Turkey, with the Azerbaijani army now under the command of Turkish generals. If your army is coordinated by another state, it means you are a province of that country. Therefore, Iran cannot tolerate that its former province becomes a Turkish province,” he emphasized.

Kiviryana also cited the issue of Israel, regarding which Iran has been more explicit in expressing concerns, highlighting the presence of Zionist forces in Azerbaijan. “In the Second Karabakh War, besides Turkish, Azerbaijani, and Pakistani forces, Israeli military personnel also participated—they operated Israeli-produced drones. This means they not only sold arms but also managed operations. It is not that Israel provided such services just for profit; they also established a presence in Azerbaijan,” he stated.

Moreover, according to Kiviryana, Iran has somewhat surrounded Israeli territory with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, calculating that if you want to suffocate your opponent, you need to operate close to their borders, and Israel is trying to apply the same tactics against Iran. “It can be said that Israeli units operate in neighboring Azerbaijan. There is much information that when striking Iran, the Israeli side plans to use airports located on Azerbaijani territory. Even reports indicate that the hastily constructed airport in Fizuli was built with Israeli support for that very purpose. This is the main reason behind the current processes,” Kiviryana pointed out.

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