What the Turkish-Azerbaijani Side Is Complaining About: Russian Political Scientist on the Likelihood of Attacking Peacekeepers

Turkey benefits from the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, as it is trying to change the status quo through Azerbaijan. This opinion was expressed by Russian political scientist Arthur Ataev in an interview with Sputnik Armenia.

On September 12, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense sent letters to Russia's defense ministry and the commander of the peacekeeping forces, pointing out the "illegal passage of transportation vehicles from other countries through the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, where Russian peacekeepers are temporarily stationed." According to Ataev, Azerbaijan is now officially presenting demands primarily to Iran. Moreover, these are being made in a demonstrative and rigid manner.

"This was done on August 11 of this year, when Azerbaijan summoned Iran's ambassador and presented a number of complaints," Ataev said. Complaints towards Russia are still limited to dissatisfaction expressed through the media. Overall, the vector is directed towards strengthening Turkey's positions and weakening Iran's positions.

Yesterday, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official response, emphasizing its balanced policy and willingness to cooperate with all neighbors. "This balance, in my opinion, is no longer beneficial for Turkey. That is why I clearly see a Turkish trace in this matter. Furthermore, the current status quo and the status of the peacekeepers are not favorable for a certain segment of the Turkish political elite, and they want to disrupt it," Ataev noted.

For this reason, Ankara and Baku are looking for reasons to complain. One of these is the movement of Iranian cargo trucks. Additionally, unfounded accusations have been directed at Russian peacekeepers, claiming that they are benefiting materially from the passage of trucks. This also relates to the allegation that Iranian number plates are being removed from trucks and replaced with Armenian ones.

"The fact of escalation is evident. What can this lead to? In a negative scenario, a complication and expansion of the conflict could occur, particularly involving part of Iranian territory. We know that Northern Iran is inhabited by ethnic Azerbaijanis," Ataev noted.

The optimal option is to de-escalate the situation so that it does not worsen further. Moreover, one must be prepared for provocations. "Provocations cannot continue. Major actors benefit from the presence of peacekeepers from Russia. However, in my opinion, their peacekeeping mission is effective," the political scientist emphasized.

He also noted that combat forces continue to accumulate at the border. If Russian peacekeepers are successfully removed, the Azerbaijani armed forces will try to seize the remaining parts of Karabakh. Ataev does not believe that such an event is possible under the presence of Russian peacekeepers. They will not be attacked, as the precedent of Mikhail Saakashvili in 2008 serves as a good lesson.