"We Haven't Lost Statehood Yet, But We're Moving Towards It at a Fast Pace": Nairi Hovhikian

Interethnic conflict expert Nairi Hovhikian wrote on his Facebook page: "In 1918, Armenia was able to self-organize and defeat Turkey solely because the world was in a general state of instability, there were no global game rules, and Armenian unity triumphed.

In the following two years, 1919-1920, Armenia began to play both sides, conducting negotiation talks with both the West and Russia simultaneously, attempting to deceive both. By 1920, Georgia and Azerbaijan understood the prospect of our region falling under Bolshevik flood and took the first step themselves, while Armenia was continuing the shortsighted program of an American mandate with the USA, leading to the Americans eventually forgetting about us, while Lenin preferred the Azerbaijani and Georgian vectors.

This resulted in Armenia becoming unreliable for all poles, which led to the downfall of Kars in 1920, and subsequently the fragmentation of our country, the loss of Artsakh, Nakhichevan, and Javakhk.

During the Karabakh movement that began in 1988, the world was again unstable, the USSR was collapsing, and once again there were no world game rules, and again Armenian unity prevailed.

During the next three decades, Armenia tried to play different strings, thinking it could outsmart the superpowers. On one hand, Armenia signed a treaty of allied relations with Russia in 1997, while on the other hand, it tried to become the US’s foothold in the Caucasus. It doesn’t work that way.

From 1993 to 2020, Armenia was never seen as reliable and predictable by either Russia, the USA, or Europe. If you ever peek out from our small country and interact with people from other countries—not just merchants or those watching series over coffee, but experts or political figures—you will understand that no one has any hopes for Armenia to be a country with a stable and clear path.

We are not good allies for Russia, but at the same time, we have never been reliable for the USA or European countries. Our authorities have constantly changed the country's vectors, altering also the external attitude towards us.

We are a small state and cannot be fully independent (though there is no completely independent country in the world), but we can be reliable and dignified partners, not flatterers, and not aspiring to change sides regularly.

In 2018, Armenia proudly celebrated the 100th anniversary of the victory in Sardarapat, emphasizing that we can accurately assess our capabilities. In 2020, Armenia still failed to understand that the world had stabilized, that there are global game rules, and that it needed to orient itself. The leadership of the country, of course, oriented itself, made a deal, but again to the detriment of Armenian statehood, repeating the centenary of Armenia's fragmentation.

Due to giving Kars to the enemy in 1920, we lost statehood. Due to giving Shushi to the enemy in 2020, we lost a significant part of Artsakh, our security resources, resilience, the joy of victories, and national dignity. We haven’t lost statehood yet, but we are moving towards it at a fast pace."