Tigran Abrahamyan: 'I Exclude the Probability of War in the Short Term'

In light of the ongoing discussions surrounding the resumption of military operations from various angles, I would like to make a few brief observations. First and foremost, I exclude the probability of such an event in the short term.

In the medium term, risks may increase to a certain extent; however, I do not consider the likelihood of a renewed war to be high during that timeframe.

In the long term, there are numerous factors that could significantly increase the likelihood of war. The primary reasons for not forecasting war in the short and medium term are the presence of Russian forces in Artsakh, as well as their expansion along the borders of Armenia.

We have already seen in 2008, in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what occurs when attempts are made to use force under the conditions of Russian peacekeepers' deployment.

This analysis may change if there are abrupt turns within the Russian Federation or in our region. However, what I am saying does not in any way exclude the potential for border provocations and heightened tensions, and furthermore, their escalation is a subject for additional analysis.