Between Two Stones: How the President of Armenia Can Save the Country

The Russian publication Газета.ru has published an analysis addressing the internal political situation in Armenia and the role of President Armen Sarkissian in its resolution. The article specifically mentions ongoing disputes surrounding the dismissal of the Chief of General Staff, with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan unsuccessfully striving for his removal.

The resolution of this issue largely depends on President Armen Sarkissian, placing him in an uncomfortable position. While the opposition accuses the president of indecisiveness, the ruling party threatens him with dismissal.

Experts believe Sarkissian is trying to be a stabilizing factor in Armenia, but lacks the necessary influence amid serious societal polarization. Recently, President Sarkissian met with representatives of the unified opposition, who demanded Pashinyan's resignation. The main topic of their conversation was the situation surrounding the dismissal of Chief of General Staff Onik Gasparyan. The president promised to present his position in the near future.

Several hours later, Sarkissian also met with Gasparyan to discuss the current situation. During their conversation, he stated that he would continue to pay attention to the army and its issues, while emphasizing that maintaining the country’s stability is his primary priority.

President Sarkissian has already twice refused to sign Pashinyan's demand for Gasparyan's dismissal. However, this does not necessarily mean that the Chief of Staff will retain his position. According to Armenian legislation, Pashinyan's decision comes into effect unless the president appeals to the Constitutional Court by March 3, questioning the legality of Pashinyan’s decree.

Not long ago, Sarkissian utilized this right to challenge Pashinyan's decision. He submitted to the Constitutional Court a draft law on 'Military Service and the Status of Military Personnel,' which would grant the prime minister the right to dismiss high-ranking representatives of the military command without justification. The Constitutional Court has yet to make a ruling on this law; nonetheless, even if deemed unconstitutional, it would not clarify Gasparyan's fate.

Under the Armenian Constitution, the Chief of General Staff has a special status, but the procedures for their dismissal are not fully defined. He can be removed on general grounds, meaning there should be a corresponding statement, an entered guilty conclusion, loss of citizenship, or death.

It is practically impossible to dismiss the Chief of General Staff without grounds, as Pashinyan attempts to do. If the president sends Pashinyan's proposal for Gasparyan's dismissal to the Constitutional Court for consideration, the baton will pass to the court. If he does not, the Chief of Staff will automatically lose his position.

However, the press service of the Armenian General Staff insists that the Constitutional Court cannot make a decision regarding the dismissal of the head of the management or the constitutionality of the president's decree, as it contradicts Article 168 of the Constitution. This means that the president could not challenge the draft decree in the Constitutional Court; hence, he chose to contest the law on 'Military Service and the Status of Military Personnel.'

The legal procedure's ambiguity, its inter-agency disputes, and the pivotal role of the president put Armen Sarkissian in an extremely awkward situation. The opposition has already expressed disappointment that the president initially did not send Pashinyan's proposal to the Constitutional Court, while the ruling 'My Step' party does not rule out the initiation of dismissal proceedings against Sarkissian for refusing to perform his duties.

According to Nikolai Silaev, a senior researcher at MGIMO's Center for Caucasus Issues and Regional Security, Sarkissian has tried to influence the current situation, considering his constitutional powers, specifically by refusing to dismiss Gasparyan.

'He is trying to maintain equal distance and exercise his powers in areas where he can influence executive decisions. His logic is to mitigate Pashinyan's most extreme actions. The key question is whether Pashinyan himself is ready to negotiate with his opponents—not just with the opposition in the street but with a broad spectrum of the political elite, including military leadership,' the expert stated.

This view is shared by Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, but he doubts that the president can somehow influence the situation. According to him, Sarkissian is trying to play the role of a stabilizer and neutralizing factor, but his powers under the Republic's Constitution are minimal.

'In reality, he plays an exclusively ceremonial role similar to that of the president in Germany or Israel. In other words, he practically has no constitutional powers outside of protocol, and thus he utilizes his authority and position to have some mediating role. However, given the current situation, this is not working out well since there is significant polarization,' Iskandaryan said.

As constitutional law expert Aram Vardevanyan stated, the president has previously described Pashinyan's decree as unconstitutional, but he did not immediately send it to the Constitutional Court for review.

'Vahagan Hovakimyan and the person occupying the prime minister's office were above the president in terms of the Constitution and the military. I regret that the president has made such a concession, especially under these circumstances,' Vardevanyan wrote on Facebook.

At the same time, according to Alexander Iskandaryan, the President of Armenia was overall incapable of becoming a unifying factor in the country due to the characteristics of his position and personality. Neither side perceives him as their own.

'The opposition does not perceive him as one of their own, and he cannot lead them since they have figures comparable to or surpassing him in reputation, engagement in politics, and political experience. In the leadership of the country, he is also perceived as quite a distant figure—firstly, someone who has not come to power as a result of the revolution. Secondly, as a politician whose background is quite different from that of the ruling team,' the expert added.

Considering the severe polarization within society, his attempts to occupy a centrist position have not been very successful, as there is a dire need for a center in such conditions, Iskandaryan emphasized. However, the president’s profile may be required just for the sake of executing some negotiation process.

Ultimately, Sarkissian’s actions are constrained by the sharply limited presidential powers, resulting from Armenia’s transition to a parliamentary governance system nearly three years ago. Interestingly, during one of the recent rallies, Pashinyan did not rule out a return to a semi-presidential system, despite describing it a year ago as an 'irresponsible and disastrous' system.