Nikol Pashinyan or Robert Kocharyan: Kocharyan's Rating Is Higher at This Stage, Political Technologist Armen Badalyan

The second President of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, gave an interview to several Armenian media outlets addressing both external and internal political processes. Speaking about early elections, he stated that in contrast to the claims of the united candidate of the 16+ forces, Vazgen Manukyan, they will participate in the elections and 'will win.'

It is undeniable that Robert Kocharyan's nomination and participation will further segment the political landscape. There will be a more significant confrontation between the 'blacks' and 'whites.’ Huge financial resources will be put into circulation. It is possible that there will be two poles: Kocharyan's and Nikol's, while the tangible participation of other actors is hard to imagine.

According to political technologist Armen Badalyan, the division will likely not be between poles but rather individuals—between Nikol Pashinyan and Robert Kocharyan. 'If you push Nikol Pashinyan out, there will be no political force left, and if you push Robert Kocharyan out, there won't be a possible coalition left either. The struggle will be between the individuals,' he told Aravot.

Badalyan recalls that the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), part of the 'Homeland Salvation Front,' officially announced it would not participate in the early elections organized by the Prime Minister, and the same was stated by the unified candidate of the 16+ forces, Vazgen Manukyan. 'Thus, there is this viewpoint, and the second president's assertion that they have to 'fight and win.' We can note that there is a difference in approaches. Whether this means that the second president is distancing himself from the 'Homeland Salvation Front,' I would not say, because de jure he is not part of that front and is not a leader of any of the parties involved. We can only state that there is a difference in the positions of the second president and the two subjects of the 'Homeland Salvation Front,' the RPA, and the unified candidate.'

Our interlocutor also highlights the need to clarify whether the RPA will maintain this position until the end. 'Because we remember that some time ago, the third president stated he would not be a prime minister, but then he ran and became one. Therefore, we need to understand if this decision is final. I assume they will maintain this position until the end. There is another issue here. People associated with the third president, who release films on television channels every few weeks, are in fact implementing a completely different process. Regardless of what statements the ordinary members of the RPA make, there are certain problems here.'

According to Armen Badalyan, a significant question is in what format the second president will participate in the elections. 'Will he create his new political party, or will he work with the existing ones? A third option is when the Homeland Salvation Front participates in the elections with a broad political coalition, which will be led by the second president. Here it is also necessary to see whether 'Prosperous Armenia' will participate in this format because that party comparatively has more resources than the Armenian Revolutionary Federation and the Homeland party.'

Badalyan also notes that although many remember Robert Kocharyan's decade in power, the falsified elections, and the blackout of 'A1+', at this stage, Robert Kocharyan's rating is higher than it was a few years ago. 'Because people see security issues and need a strong hand. And Kocharyan can be that person if we recall his years in power. However, let’s not confuse this with democratic governance. Democracy starts to yield to security because the question arises: do you want to live in a democratic country or a secure one? The current situation is starting to bore people, the state apparatus has not been functioning since November 9, and the desire to emigrate is increasing, which brings forth a demand to emerge from chaos. This is characteristic not only of Armenia but also of other states when we seek a strong hand after chaos. I repeat, this has nothing to do with democracy. The Prime Minister is, unconsciously in his words and actions, lowering his rating.'

Our interlocutor notes that the candidate for the Prime Minister from the 16+ forces, Vazgen Manukyan, does not possess the qualities needed to counterbalance the incumbent Prime Minister. 'The issue is that we are not choosing ideas but rather human qualities and characters. These elections will also be about people. Some will also choose the candidate of Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukyan, because within some circles, he also has a rating. But the question is whether he will go to the elections alone or as a coalition.'

The political technologist believes that it is also important to consider when the early elections will be held. 'March? May? Or November? That will also play a role. But we already see the following picture emerging: the current Prime Minister and the second President. This is the situation at this moment. Let's also note that if the theme of the past was relevant during the 2018 campaign, it will not be so now. That factor is not working now.'

Armen Badalyan also emphasizes that we should not overlook the support of external forces to the existing political powers. 'Because external intervention in Armenia's political life has significantly increased. I am not speaking solely about Russia's support, but also about the support that other countries provide to various political forces. And here again, it is crucial what actions the third president will take in the backstage after stating that he will not participate in the elections.'