Moscow and Baku Could Resolve Artsakh's Status Without Yerevan's Involvement: Regnum

Russian publication Regnum has released an article by renowned analyst Stanislav Tarasov, in which the political scientist addresses the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, concluding that the question of Stepanakert's status could be resolved by Moscow and Baku without Yerevan's participation.

The article specifically mentions that Hikmet Hajiyev, head of the foreign policy department of the Azerbaijani presidential administration, stated that "the concept of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict no longer exists." He reiterated what Ilham Aliyev had said earlier in a message to the people, declaring the "final resolution of the Karabakh conflict" and stating that "there is no longer a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh," and that "the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh are citizens of Azerbaijan."

According to Tarasov, Hajiyev's remark is noteworthy because it was made on the eve of the arrival of representatives from the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group in Baku. This immediately raises serious intrigue. French co-chair Stefan Visconti, during his meeting with Aliyev, stated that the group arrived in Baku at the invitation of the Azerbaijani leadership; otherwise, the visit would not have taken place, and that the group "understands the new agenda of current events and can propose a new action plan." Aliyev followed up with a stern response: "I did not invite the Minsk Group for a visit, but when I was told that the OSCE Minsk Group wanted to come, I said, 'Let them come, I have no objection. Maybe they have something to tell me.'"

So, what could they possibly say? The three-party statement to halt the war in Nagorno-Karabakh between Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow fundamentally changed the situation in the region, leaving the previous theoretical developments regarding the resolution of the conflict by the Minsk Group moot. However, not everyone believes that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is over. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who attended a military parade in Baku as a guest, stated that "the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has not ended around this region." According to him, the struggle being waged in political and military spheres will continue on many other fronts, which certainly pertains to the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time, Erdoğan hinted at the possibility of "revanchist forces" coming to power in Yerevan, which, according to Turkish Duvar, "may find external support in the West," primarily pointing to France, whose parliament recently, albeit belatedly, decided to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh.

There is also another option. Previously, Armenia was the guarantor of the security of the Armenian sub-ethnos in Nagorno-Karabakh. Now, in practice, this mission has been placed on Russia. Under certain conditions, Moscow and Baku could resolve this issue bilaterally and possibly with the involvement of the authorities in Stepanakert, without Yerevan’s participation.

Moreover, opportunities for communication between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan have opened up. At the same time, it is still difficult to speak about possible decisions regarding the status of Stepanakert. But it is undeniable that they will be unusual, and much will depend on the further developments of events in the region and beyond the South Caucasus.