According to unofficial figures, the state of the economy is unprecedentedly bad: Hrant Bagratyan

In the chaos surrounding anti-government sentiments, the social and economic issues of Armenia have been somewhat neglected. This was stated by former Prime Minister and economist Hrant Bagratyan on his Facebook page. The post is presented below:

“Nevertheless, the National Statistical Committee recently released macroeconomic figures characterizing the socio-economic situation for January-November 2020. From these, it follows that GDP has declined by approximately 7.2% (currently, only the HDI indicator is presented), construction has decreased by 11.2%, trade has fallen by 13.5%, the services sector has decreased by 13.6%, exports have decreased by 5.2% (unfortunately, at current prices), while imports have dropped by 16% (again, at current prices). Prices have increased by 1%. Although the average nominal salary has risen by 4.2%, when we exclude the ‘My Step’ bonuses from the salary fund, considering the share of these bonuses in the salary fund, we see there is no growth in the average nominal salary. In short, it is bad according to official figures.

According to unofficial figures, for instance, based on our analyses, the situation is unprecedentedly bad. The National Statistical Committee, as always, is distorting the data. Among the macroeconomic figures, there are some that indicate a higher probability of economic decline. These are synthetic or, as we say, consequential indicators. For example, from January to September 2020, the net inflow of foreign direct investments amounted to only 311.1 million drams, which is 123 times less than the same indicator in 2019. Of course, this is purely the inflow. It is possible (in fact, it is so) that there has been an outflow of investments. From this, it becomes clear that Armenia is merely a recipient in terms of investments and transfers, but also a donor. And this is within the conditions of approximately 30% poverty. The situation is even worse in terms of the budget. Thus, the tax revenues of the 2020 budget (including fees) were supposed to amount to 1,602 billion drams. In 11 months, we have 1,244 billion drams. The annual figure will be at most 1,360 billion. In the 11 months of 2019, we had 1,450 billion in taxes and fees, which is 206 billion drams more, while the annual figure was 1,600 billion drams. Thus, we have a 16% decline in budget revenues, which indicates that the decline in GDP or HDI is actually at least 15%.

This was the reason the government took the unprecedented step of appropriating the funds of the Hayastan Foundation. The decision to transfer these to the budget was made by President Armen Sarkissian (in this case, he was also the chairman of the foundation's board of trustees). Feeling the criminal nature of this act, this man announced that people should remain calm and that he would demand accountability regarding the spending of that money. An incorrigible populist, a person of emptiness. Money does not come without consequences. This is the same as if a neighbor borrows money from you to pay for their child’s education. After that, you see that neighbor buying groceries in a store, and you attack them, saying that you gave them money for tuition, not for food. Nothing, the President believes he lives in a country of fools and makes a fool of himself.”