What New Surprises are Awaited, Gradually Taking Shape: Tigran Abrahamyan

Tigran Abrahamyan, head of the "Henarquot" analytical center, wrote on his Facebook page: "In his latest interview, Nikol Pashinyan notes that 'until the last day, the penultimate day, the general assessment was that the war, after all, will not start.' This means that up until September 25 or 26, the authorities and Nikol Pashinyan personally considered that, in any case, there would be no war.

I do not know which organizations’ analyses and reports conveyed such a conclusion to the Prime Minister, or whether he was given such information at all, but I can say that these institutions should be dismissed and reassembled. It is only publicly known that the Chief of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces reported to the Prime Minister during a Security Council meeting about the sharp increase in the risks of resuming military operations.

Without having access to official, classified, or intelligence information, I could clearly see a significant increase in the threat of war based solely on my experience and the signals coming from Azerbaijani, Armenian, Turkish, and generally foreign media. Several experts and figures shared this observation.

Joint military exercises of Turkish and Azerbaijani troops lasting over a month, terrorists being recruited in Syria, direct statements from Turkey and Azerbaijan about the resumption of war. Not to mention the large-scale mobilizations of reserves occurring in Azerbaijan and the numerous vehicles used during wartime gathering across the country. This list could go on.

If I am not mistaken, on September 25, an advisor on military affairs to the President of Azerbaijan directly stated to one of the Azerbaijani media outlets that the government has already made a decision regarding the military solution to the issue of Artsakh.

In the months of August and September, there was enormous information regarding the imminent start of military operations, while the Prime Minister, referencing various bodies and institutions, claims that the overall assessment is that the war will not start.

I am not even talking about the information that intelligence services should have gathered, analyzed, and reported to the Prime Minister, who should have made the necessary decisions. Perhaps it was reported, but the decisions made did not derive from it.

In fact, the state governance system and the individuals at its helm lack the capabilities to collect, analyze information, and make decisions. And now, these same people assert that the right path is the continuation of the Prime Minister's term, and what new surprises are still expected is gradually taking shape."