Turkey is Cornering Azerbaijan, Expert Says

Military expert Karen Hovhannisyan wrote on his Facebook page: "Turkey is cornering Azerbaijan. Turkey is sending interesting messages to Azerbaijan. Although they are unofficial, they serve as the backdoor voices of official Ankara. We are talking about Turkish analysts and experts who say what official Ankara wants to say but cannot. One such political scientist is Mitat Celikpala, a professor at Kadir Has University and an expert on Eurasian security.

He spoke about the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and expressed the view that a new front cannot open in the context of this confrontation. He refers to a direct confrontation between Armenia and Turkey, as well as the potential for a new front opening from Nakhchivan. The Ankara spokesperson, who is an expert in this field, clearly states that the Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes could continuously escalate in the regions where the fighting ceased in 1994.

In addition to viewing the issue from a geopolitical perspective, Celikpala also considers it from the viewpoint of water resources and expresses an interesting idea. He notes that until 1990, villagers could distribute the water flowing from the highlands of Nagorno-Karabakh and Tavush among themselves (he avoids using the words Armenians and Azerbaijanis), but now that sense of mutual sharing is absent.

Returning to the geopolitical aspect, he argues that Turkey and Russia have different ambitions in this region, and the vision for resolving the issue falls within these varying outlooks. He asserts that Turkey views Armenia not just as a country, but as a member of the CSTO, while Russia considers Turkey, not merely as a country, but as a NATO member. While discussing all this, he simultaneously reaffirms official Ankara's position on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, stating that Ankara will not escalate its relationships with Moscow in this context.

Another remark by the political scientist is a clear signal that Turkey sees the key to resolving the conflict via military means, as he states that if one side believes it can win, it will resort to military confrontation. This is merely one instance of the statements by experts, analysts, and political scientists who act as the voice of official Ankara, reiterating that the solution to the problem is through military means, and that Ankara will once again have an indirect role in this process.