What Steps Does the ARF Propose to the Government

The Supreme Body of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF), continuing the trajectory adopted by the party and reaffirming its readiness to effectively serve in overcoming the challenges facing the state, has presented recommendations on ensuring a state of emergency and managing the crisis stemming from the pandemic.

During the changing situation, this package of proposals can be supplemented and expanded. Additional clarifications and explanations regarding the presented proposals will be provided as necessary.

Assessment of the Situation

Overcoming the challenges faced by the whole world requires states to apply the best managerial skills in conditions of the strictest discipline, decisiveness, and operational efficiency, making numerous, including painful, decisions in real-time.

It is essential to emphasize that the measures proposed by the Government in the draft for mitigating the economic consequences of the coronavirus, and most of the recommendations presented by expert circles, do not take into account the deep issues of the situation, and many have incorrect perceptions of the cause-and-effect chain.

A significant portion of the circulating proposals is of a financial or socio-economic nature and does not address the primary challenge. It is still too early to assess the full economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world and Armenia, but it is beyond doubt that economic decline is inevitable. However, it is premature to talk about stimulating the economy at this moment.

On one hand, society cannot be isolated and certain types of economic activity limited, while on the other hand, business stimulation initiatives cannot be launched. Now, it is necessary to ensure the safety of citizens and the state and address the vital social issues facing the population.

Considering the challenges in front of the country, the Government of the Republic of Armenia must take effective steps to minimize the burden and possible losses falling on citizens and small business owners and refrain from actions that would disproportionately benefit dominant enterprises and financial organizations in the market.

The unpredictability and scale of the pandemic shape long-term systemic financial-economic crises. Therefore, it is principled to implement measures that first guarantee the safe existence of the population and the viability of the state. These measures should be planned at least until the universal neutralization of the pandemic.

Thus, the primary issue worldwide is the localization of the pandemic, the identification of clusters and patients, and the exclusion of its spread. Implementing such measures has led to a slowdown in economic activities globally, a reduction in passenger transport, difficulties in freight transport, disruptions in established consumption and production systems, the emergence of a new situation in the consumer market, and other consequences of the enforced freezing of economic life.

This means that socio-economic difficulties do not have a financial or economic foundation and will continue as long as there is a danger of spreading the infection. The unpredictability and impossibility of providing a specific timeline, in turn, create new challenges related to strategic planning.

As it is currently impossible to make any forecasts, the policy implemented by the state should aim at reducing losses through the comprehensive involvement of resources until there are elements of certainty and predictability.

The proposals presented pertain to the upcoming two months. Their aim is to lay the foundations for a system capable of long-term resilience, focusing on the maximum conservation and mobilization of all resources directed toward the effective protection of the state and society.

State of Emergency

A state of emergency has been declared in Armenia, but only certain elements of it are currently in effect. It is clear that, as the situation worsens, the government will be forced to tighten conditions further. However, both international experience and the principles of crisis management dictate a radical solution to the problem and the implementation of preventive measures that would be more effective today rather than as a result of escalating the situation in all directions.

Delays are fraught not only with the continued spread of the pandemic but also with a time and resource loss that cannot be reclaimed.

It is necessary to stop all types of businesses and organizations today, except for life-sustaining entities. Limit all passenger transport companies' operations, including metro and taxi services. Establish specific routes that will be operated during particular times under strict supervision. Create manageable levels of isolation based on settlements. Designate specific hours for the care of elderly individuals and visits to shops and pharmacies.

Transport for employees of life-sustaining organizations to and from their workplaces should be ensured by enterprises or the state. Ensure mandatory sanitary-hygienic requirements that arise from the situation for employees of all operational enterprises, with violations leading to administrative or even criminal liability. All state and local self-government bodies should provide reports and services online.

Consider overdue deadlines as valid throughout the entire duration of the declared state of emergency. Banks and credit organizations should switch to emergency working conditions, without citizen visits, while maintaining the functioning of duty groups and ensuring the uninterrupted operation of monetary mass and card systems. Restrictions on free movement will not apply to vehicles of specialized services.

Form emergency committees in all state management bodies. Other employees are obliged to work from home. Establish regional crisis management centers under the command of the emergency situation authorities with the participation of experienced competent managers. The government should operate in a highly frugal mode, stopping the funding of non-urgent programs in the current context, halting procurement competitions, except in cases necessary to ensure conditions for the state of emergency, suspending all forms of bonuses at all levels of government and local self-government, prohibiting both state and non-state organizations from all forms of business trips, except under special permission from the state authorities if stemming from the emergency situation, halting tax inspections and setting other reporting periods for required reporting in this timeframe.

Cease allocations from the state budget to pension funds. Initiate a reassessment of the current system, returning accumulated funds to the citizens and the state who paid them. Establish a timeline for depositing and managing these funds into citizens' accounts. Stop programs that further worsen the situation for entrepreneurs and citizens while simultaneously benefiting the financial system at the expense of the state budget, such as promoting unjustified lending.

Reconstruct the expenditure policy of the state budget, prioritizing healthcare programs as well as financial support for technological innovations in pandemic prevention, treatment, and remote working and service provision. Create a unified approach among banks and credit organizations for deferring the servicing of loans granted to organizations and citizens in favor of borrowers. Control currency flows. Prohibit cash transfers or movements in any manner, except for transfers aimed at purchasing strategically significant goods. Do not compromise currency reserves by artificially maintaining the currency exchange rate, jeopardizing future acquisition of strategically significant goods. Prohibit the operation of online gambling games and all types of their advertising.

Allow organizations and citizens to mutually agree to defer contractual, legal, and other obligations without subjecting them to penalties or fines, or liability sanctions from government bodies. Mandatory deferrals of this kind may be established for certain sectors by the emergency authorities.

In light of the current challenges, initiate discussions on the freezing and/or restructuring of annual repayments and servicing payments on state external debts.

Strategic Reserves and Food Security

Declare price freezes on a number of strategically significant goods (flour, sugar, butter, oil, eggs, meat, etc.). Any changes can only be made with the permission of the emergency authorities. This limitation may also apply to other goods necessary to ensure the country's viability under emergency conditions. The list of strategically significant goods will be defined by the Government of Armenia.

In emergencies, apply regulations on essential goods and medicines. Strictly monitor the unjustified increase in prices or sales and resales of food and essential goods outside of stores and trade places. Inventory strategic reserves, procure from abroad the food, fuel, and medical supplies needed for the next six months. Such procurements should be carried out through budgetary reserve funds via state companies as well as by engaging private entities and their financial capacities. In this early phase of agricultural work, direct resources to the large-scale production of agricultural products and grain crops.

Through state orders, guarantee specific production of goods to peasant and farming households under the state guarantee for purchase in 2020. Provide farmers with irrigation water, fertilizers, and seeds for free for the production of agricultural goods with guaranteed state purchases.

Social Policy

Citizens who were registered as employed prior to the declaration of the state of emergency but are now on leave due to the emergency will receive a monthly minimum subsistence amount from the state budget based on one non-working family member. If there was more than one working member in the household, the amount for one family member, nonetheless, cannot exceed the aforementioned sum.

The state will discuss future social assistance policies toward other social strata at the conclusion of the first month of national quarantine by May. This could involve implementing measures thereafter such as expanding the social support framework, temporarily reducing salaries for highly paid employees in the public sector (including the Central Bank) with a set upper limit.

Transport Security

Inventory the capabilities of freight transport companies by involving them in the importation of strategic goods. Examine the capacities of Armenian non-state air transporters for charters mandated by the government in emergencies. Halt all types of flights to and from Armenia. Address needs through chartered flights.

Initiate the formation of a national carrier by utilizing the opportunity that the crisis presents to acquire a fleet with minimal resources. Abandon existing unpromising policies not beneficial to the country and prepare for a new aviation policy regarding both domestic and external regulation.

Healthcare

Fully prepare several medical establishments to receive infected patients. Exclude patient distribution in multifunctional hospitals. Import necessary masks, medicines, medical supplies, and equipment, including artificial respiration apparatuses, needed for the country in the coming months.

Education

Ensure the continuity of primary, secondary vocational, and higher education. Create a unified national online platform to implement a common mechanism for remote education in educational institutions.

Armed Forces

The armed forces must switch to barracks mode. Exclude all visits home by military personnel, including contract soldiers, officers, and servicing staff. Access to military units should be limited to food and other necessary supplies, as well as vehicles transporting weapons and ammunition, whose drivers must meet the strictest anti-epidemic requirements. The military police should monitor compliance with these regulations strictly.