The Impeachment Process Against Donald Trump and Its Possible Outcome

On December 18 of last year, the House of Representatives of the U.S. Congress decided with a majority vote to impeach President Donald Trump. According to the U.S. Constitution, the House of Representatives has the exclusive right to make decisions regarding the impeachment of the president, while the Senate has the exclusive right to conduct "trials" on the matter of impeachment, writes Armenspress.

The current president of the United States is accused of two articles: abuse of power (according to Democrats, Trump attempted to exert pressure on Ukraine to start an investigation against his Democratic opponent Joe Biden in the upcoming elections in 2020) and obstruction of Congress (according to Democrats, Trump refused to cooperate with Congress in the impeachment investigation).

The impeachment process against the president began in the Senate on January 21. The first day of the process was marked by heated discussions lasting 12 hours. The agenda included clarifying the rules of procedure for the impeachment trial in the Senate. Despite Democratic resistance, the Republican majority in the Senate eventually voted in favor of Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's resolution, which stipulated that the process should move quickly and no new witnesses would be called. During the vote, both Republicans and Democrats demonstrated unity, with all Republicans voting in favor (53 for) while all Democrats voted against (47 against).

On January 22, Democrats began to present their arguments in the Senate, trying to convince senators to impeach the president. Among the Democratic "managers" presenting arguments against Trump are Adam Schiff, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, and Jerrold Nadler, the chair of the Judiciary Committee. They have been given 24 hours to present their arguments over three days.

Following the Democrats, on Saturday, Trump's defense team and Republicans began to present their arguments against the impeachment (they also had 24 hours over three days). Trump's defense team is led by Pat Cipollone, who is the White House counsel and known as a skilled lawyer. In defense of the U.S. president, his team has prepared a 171-page report, stating that the allegations against the president are "baseless and dangerous for national security."

Trump's team concluded its arguments on January 28. Senators were given 16 hours to submit written questions. It is expected that debates will begin in the Senate on Friday regarding whether new witnesses should be heard at this stage. Democrats insist that it is necessary to hear from John Bolton, Trump's former national security adviser, who stated in his recent book that the president personally told him he was withholding military aid to Ukraine in exchange for political favors.

There may be another vote on the issue of hearing witnesses, which would require a simple majority of 51 votes (currently, Democrats have 47 votes, while Republicans have 53). If Republicans succeed in voting against this again, the next phase will already be the main vote on whether to impeach the president or not. A two-thirds majority of senators' votes will be required to impeach the president.

In summary, we can state that the process and the unity exhibited by Republicans in this issue suggest that it will not be possible to achieve the impeachment of the president at this stage, a fact that Democrats are undoubtedly aware of as well. Therefore, for them, the important aspect is not the outcome of the process, but its trajectory: the more prominent the process appears, the more Trump’s position will be undermined ahead of the presidential elections.