If War Starts, the Russians Will Leave Araks: We Don't Care About You - Tarasov

After the meeting organized by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on April 15 in Moscow, where Lavrov, Mnatsakanyan, and Mamedyarov met, both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides continue to make contradictory statements about the content of ongoing negotiations. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov stated that the parties are discussing the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue based on the proposals made by Russia in 2016.

However, the official position from Yerevan insists that all topics discussed at the recent meeting in Moscow are reflected in a joint statement by the three foreign ministers and the co-chairs. According to that statement, the meeting participants discussed the situation along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the line of contact, as well as potential cooperation in the humanitarian sphere. Regarding the substantive points of the resolution or solution to the issue, it was noted that "a substantial exchange of views took place on the fundamental issues of resolution." According to the press secretary of the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, currently, there are no negotiations based on a resolution plan, and discussions continue in the realm of "familiarizing, clarifying, and specifying each other's positions." However, Mamedyarov presented the Moscow negotiations as having discussed many concrete issues related to the resolution. "For example, Armenia raises questions related to status and security, while we primarily raise questions about the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories and the return of forcibly displaced persons. We had extensive discussions on these four issues. I believe we agreed to continue the discussions," he said.

On April 24, responding to journalists' requests concerning this topic and specifically the so-called "Lavrov Plan," Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan stated that "we are not discussing any documents at this moment, today."

On this subject, "Zhamanak" interviewed Stanislav Tarasov, an expert on Middle Eastern and Caucasus affairs.

– Mr. Tarasov, Mamedyarov says that the 2016 Russian proposals are on the table today, while the Armenian side denies this, and Lavrov neither confirmed nor denied this information. Who is ultimately lying?

– First of all, the negotiations are closed, and there are certain obligations not to disclose information. The conflicting parties and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group have always made contradictory statements. Joint statements are very few. Mnatsakanyan provides his commentary, while Mamedyarov was the first to arrange a leak by stating that the 2016 version is allegedly being discussed, but what version is that? Is it the project that has been called the "Lavrov Plan"? It does not exist in nature, as the Russian Foreign Ministry has officially denied it. The American co-chair stated that "the package of proposals on the table, which can conditionally be called the 'Lavrov Plan', but it is not the 'Lavrov Plan'; we simply gave it that working title." In other words, this seems like real "abracadabra" to me. This is the first point.

The second point is that the mediators, apparently, are trying to ascertain the positions of both parties. But how many times have the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met since 1994? How much longer can they study their positions? In general, the entire negotiating process is based on merely 5-6 fundamental documents, but the problem is that the parties have not developed a common conceptual apparatus. If this concept were translated into more understandable language, it would roughly mean that if we both look out the window, I say it’s a window, while you say it’s a door, then we will never reach an agreement. Today, such a schizophrenic stance is being publicly expressed.

Nevertheless, experienced diplomats understand that negotiations are ongoing, and they are talking about something. It is a fact that Mnatsakanyan and Mamedyarov are meeting. It is a fact that Pashinyan and Aliyev are also meeting. This means there is a subject of negotiation, but it is being carefully concealed, and we all understand that if there were no specific subject for discussion, negotiations would not be taking place. What lies behind all this is known to no one, including myself...

– What was the purpose of organizing the meeting of foreign ministers in Moscow immediately after the Vienna summit? Is Russia trying to show that it is the "first fiddle" in the Minsk Group, or did the other co-chairs also approve of this meeting?

– The leaders of the other two co-chairing countries in the Minsk Group, Macron and Trump, do not care about Karabakh; they are not dealing with this issue because Karabakh is far from them. Putin is involved because it is close to us. If a war moves from the Middle East to the South Caucasus, it will directly affect not only Armenia and Azerbaijan but also Russia. We need to prevent such a course of events. That is the question. Second, for Russia, it is largely the same who will own Karabakh, whether it will belong to Armenia or Azerbaijan. We do not plan to seize Stepanakert and join it to Russia.

– From this, the question arises: considering Foreign Minister Lavrov's recent activity, can we say that Russia is presenting a new initiative?

– The danger of Moscow's position for Armenia and Azerbaijan lies in the following: if the parties cannot reach an agreement, and if there is a threat of destabilization emerging from the south, especially from Iran, affecting the South Caucasus along the Araks River, then in that case the Russians will leave Araks, despite the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and they will not defend either the Azerbaijanis or the Armenians; they will only protect their own interests. And this factor restrains everyone. The Russians say, "Come to an agreement, settle it; we are not imposing conditions." But if you do not reach an agreement, and a war starts under our noses—this war is dangerous for us, and we don't care about you; we will solve our own problems,” writes the paper.

Read the full article in today's newspaper.