Threats from Russia as Decisive Elections Loom in Armenia

The first EU-Armenia summit is taking place in Yerevan from May 4 to 5, with participation from Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Ursula von der Leyen, and Antonio Costa. This event comes ahead of the decisive parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7, which Moscow and Brussels are closely monitoring. According to France 24, the impending geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the EU concerns democracy advocates, who fear foreign influence on the electoral process.

Armenia has become a battleground for ideological competition between Brussels and Moscow, especially since public opinion has started to shift toward Europe. Although the official campaign has yet to begin, candidates are already active. The incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018, leads the polls with his pro-European campaign. His main competitor is Samvel Karapetyan, the billionaire leader of the 'Strong Armenia' party, who was arrested in 2025 on suspicion of attempting to destabilize the country.

The elections occur against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Russia, which began after the displacement of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Yerevan has accused Russian peacekeepers of inaction and has frozen its membership in the CSTO. Nevertheless, Moscow maintains its influence through the EAEU and the military base in Gyumri.

According to IRI data, 72% of Armenians support EU membership, associating it with security. At the same time, 43% of respondents still view Moscow as an important partner, with one-third considering it a political threat. Pro-Russian forces warn of a potential 'economic war,' while Vladimir Putin has stated that one cannot be a member of both the EAEU and the EU simultaneously.

European diplomacy chief Kaia Kallas has noted that Armenia has turned to the EU for assistance in ensuring election security and countering harmful influence. However, IODA representative Philippe Califano criticizes external interference, pointing out that holding the summit before the vote could be perceived as support for Pashinyan.