The Risk of Escalation in Armenia-Azerbaijan Relations Has Decreased: Foreign Intelligence Service

As a result of intensively ongoing high-level negotiations and the Washington Declaration, which was achieved with the active involvement of U.S. President Donald Trump on August 8, along with the preliminary signing of the "Agreement on the Establishment of Peace and Inter-State Relations," the risk of military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan has significantly decreased, while the probability of peaceful resolution has increased. This is stated in the annual report on external risks of the Republic of Armenia for 2026, published in Armenian and English.

The report notes, "Based on a comprehensive analysis of the aforementioned processes and data, we consider it almost improbable that military escalation driven by political-military intentions will occur between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026. We also consider it less likely that there will be local actions or incidents not driven by political-military intentions. In 2026, significant progress is likely to be recorded in the delimitation and demarcation processes, bilateral trade and economic initiatives, societal dialogue, humanitarian issues, and others.

In the event of unblocking regional infrastructure, it is also highly likely that progress will be made in the ongoing processes, while Armenia's initiatives for connectivity with its neighbors will facilitate the advancement of more inclusive regional economic projects.

At the same time, however, the risks of harmful actions by states pursuing their interests to maintain and increase their influence in our region against these connectivity assurance processes will also expand in 2026. The risks of the materialization of these harmful actions by Azerbaijan and other actors that put Armenia's sovereignty under question and hinder the implementation of connectivity programs are highlighted in the report.