Only This Way Armenia Can Avoid a Forced Double Trap: Surenyants

Peace cannot be the result of capitulation. This was stated by political analyst Suren Surenyants.

“During a speech at MGIMO, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reacted skeptically to the Armenia-Azerbaijan document pre-signed in Washington, hinting that real peace in the South Caucasus can only be achieved by considering Moscow's interests. At the same time, Azerbaijan's presidential special representative Elchin Amirbekov openly declared that the peace treaty cannot be signed until Armenia's constitution aligns with Baku's agenda.

This means that the referendum becomes a potentially explosive 'mine' in the process. If society votes in favor, Armenia is effectively accepting Azerbaijani vassalage. If it votes against, Baku gets a new pretext for war. This is a destructive deadlock.

The only real choice for Armenia is to extricate the constitutional issue from the peace settlement process. For this, two key conditions are necessary: overcoming the polarization of Armenian society and forming a qualitatively new internal political status quo by the 2026 elections.

The implementation of skilled and multi-layered diplomacy that will convince international actors that peace cannot be negotiated with the internal legal order of one country is essential. Only in this way can Armenia avoid a forced double trap. Peace cannot be the result of capitulation.”