Potential Hail: Significant Daily Temperature Variations in May

In May 2025, there will be a noticeable activation of atmospheric processes and frequent exchanges of air masses. The alternation between warm and cold air masses, as well as uneven heating of the Earth's surface and snow melting in high mountainous areas, leads to the emergence of powerful convective currents, often resulting in heavy precipitation accompanied by thunderstorms.

The average monthly temperature in the republic is expected to be 9.6°C. According to the Hydro-Meteorological and Monitoring Center, the average daily temperature is relatively low, reaching 8.2°C in the first decade, after which it gradually rises to 10.9°C in the third decade. The average monthly temperature is significantly higher in the Ararat and Armavir regions, the valleys of Vayots Dzor and Syunik, and the foothills of Aragats, where it can reach +17 to +18°C. In Gegharkunik, the mountainous areas of Aragats, and Shirak, temperatures will range from +8 to +10°C, while in high mountainous areas (above 3000 meters), temperatures will still be negative, at -0.5°C, indicating the continued possibility of precipitation in the form of snow.

In the Ararat Plain and the valleys of Syunik, a stable transition above 15°C is already observed in the first days of May, signaling the beginning of summer. In mountainous areas, a stable transition above 10°C will occur by mid-May. Despite a generally high temperature background throughout the month, the mountainous regions will continue to pose a frost risk for the entire month, occasionally with significant intensity, potentially impacting agricultural cultures. The absolute minimum temperature in mountainous regions could drop to -8 to -10°C. In the first decade of the month, temperatures in the Ararat Plain, Tavush region, and Syunik valleys could reach as low as -1°C, while maximum temperatures may soar to +35 to +38°C (observed in Armavir, Meghri).

Daily temperature variations are significant, averaging 8-10°C and occasionally reaching 20-22°C. The duration of sunshine increases to 180-200 hours, with cloudy days predominating and the number of clear days being the lowest of the year (1-4 days). The maximum amount of precipitation is observed in May, totaling an average of 92mm, with an average of 17-20 days of precipitation. The highest levels are recorded in Lori, reaching 120-130mm, while the least is observed in Ararat and Armavir, with 40-50mm. In some years, daily precipitations have reached the monthly norm, and they often exhibit heavy characteristics.

The relative humidity in the republic averages 68%, slightly increasing compared to March and April, though in some regions, it may be lower. The relative humidity is lowest in Ararat and Armavir regions, ranging from 52-55%. Thunderstorm activity increases in May, with an average of 10-13 days experiencing thunderstorms (in some years, reaching 20-22 days). The likelihood of hail also increases, averaging about 1-3 days per month, and up to 8 days in Tashir. Temperature differences between valley and mountainous regions widen, enhancing mountain-valley circulation, resulting in a clearly defined daily wind pattern: in the morning, winds blow from valleys to mountains, and in the evening, from mountains to valleys. Wind speeds in the republic are moderately increasing, while calm days are significantly decreasing.