Armenia Refuses to Host Putin: The Trajectory of Pashinyan's Decision

The scheduled EEU summit at the end of the year will not take place in Armenia. At the request of the Armenian side, it will be held on December 25 in Saint Petersburg. This was announced yesterday by Russian President Vladimir Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov. According to the plan, leaders of the member countries of the economic bloc, including Vladimir Putin, were supposed to arrive in Yerevan for the summit. In short, a major event was supposed to take place in Yerevan in December, where the leader of the superpower would also play a key role. It is noteworthy that Putin last visited Yerevan on November 22, 2022, when Prime Minister Pashinyan personally welcomed him at the 'Zvartnots' airport. At that time, Armenia hosted leaders of member countries of the CSTO as the presiding country in the organization. Two years later, Armenia, now presiding over the EEU, effectively refused to host Putin and the leaders of the other member countries of the economic organization.

Why did Armenia, and specifically Prime Minister Pashinyan, take such a drastic step? Let us analyze Pashinyan's decision with several important observations:

1. In October 2023, the National Assembly passed a draft law on ratifying the Rome Statute. It should be noted that the International Criminal Court issued an international arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2023, which implies that countries ratifying the Rome Statute must arrest the Russian president. Armenia's ratification of the Rome Statute received a harsh response from Russia. 'We doubt, and have doubted from the very beginning, whether Armenia's accession to the International Criminal Court's Rome Statute is correct from the perspective of bilateral relations. We still believe that it is not a correct decision,' stated Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. In this context, Putin's arrival in Yerevan could pose serious problems for Pashinyan's administration. Specifically, it could receive a tough response from the Council of Europe member Armenia.

2. From another perspective, Putin's arrival in Yerevan could create problems for the authorities as well. High-ranking officials have repeatedly discussed in recent years that Russia has directed opposition circles, even attempting revolutions. It is believed that Putin's arrival in Yerevan could provide additional momentum to the so-called pro-Russian forces, which, in turn, would raise the tide of tension in the domestic political arena. In short, by transferring the EEU summit from Yerevan to Saint Petersburg, Pashinyan avoided facing two serious problems.

3. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the latest geopolitical developments, it cannot be ruled out that the decision to not hold the EEU summit in Yerevan may have deeper reasons. More specifically, Ushakov's announcement was followed by a statement from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service today, which claimed that the United States is aiming to completely subjugate Armenia. 'Once again, we confirm with credible information that the United States is not abandoning its so-called democratization agenda, pursuing the goal of fully subjugating Armenia,' noted the Foreign Intelligence Service. If we take this statement as a basis, it appears that the West has initiated an active process in Armenia, during which the presence of Russian and allied state leaders in Armenia is certainly not desirable. Combining the recent developments, we conclude that the Russian side is indirectly hinting that Armenia has refused to host the EEU summit under Western pressure.