Ukrainian Air Defense Missiles Set to Run Out by March Without Resupplies, NYT

The stockpiles of Ukrainian military air defense missiles are depleting rapidly, and without resupplies in the near future, they are expected to run out by March, reports The New York Times, citing assessments from U.S. officials.

Without assistance from the U.S., the publication's sources, along with Western analysts, warn that a "cascade failure" on the front lines could be possible as early as this year. They note that it will take at least another two months before the absence of aid has a widespread impact. However, they believe that without such support, it is hard to imagine how Ukraine can maintain its positions on the battlefield.

Officials and military analysts point out that in this situation, Ukraine will face challenges in conducting local counter-offensives before March, and could struggle to repel Russian assaults by the beginning of summer. Nevertheless, analysts say it will also be difficult for Russia to rapidly build sufficient capabilities for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine. Most likely, Russian forces will advance "clumsily and disjointed," suffering significant losses.

In this context, the new commander-in-chief, Alexander Syrsky, as noted by The New York Times, will have to contend with the same "bleak calculations" and determine when the cost of defending territory will outweigh the benefits of inflicting damage on the enemy.

The publication reports that he has had to solve this "bloody equation" more than once, but critics of the new commander suggest that his decisions have not always been correct, particularly in the challenging battles for Bakhmut.