Erdogan Awaits Signals from Baku, Says Thomas de Waal

In 2024, the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations is possible, with Erdogan awaiting signals from Baku. This opinion was expressed by Thomas de Waal, a senior expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, during an interview with Ermenihaber.am.

The British researcher noted that in his article titled "The Years of Armenia's Insecurity," published on the Carnegie Endowment's website last year, he identified the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations as one of the optimistic scenarios for 2023. He also presented the potential victory of the opposition in Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections as a contributing factor.

However, Ankara continues to set new preconditions for Armenia, perhaps the most significant of which is the signing of a peace treaty with Baku. The media outlet asked the analyst if he still considers the normalization of relations between the two countries possible in 2024.

“I think it is possible. I believe Erdogan is waiting for Azerbaijan. Turkey's preconditions have changed over the years. Remember 10-15 years ago, Turkish officials would say that it would be enough for Armenian troops to withdraw even from one region, only from Fizuli (Vardenis), or just from Jabrayil (Jrakan), and they would normalize relations. Then, not one but seven regions were lost, Nagorno-Karabakh was lost, and there still is no resolution,” de Waal pointed out.

According to him, representatives of Turkish foreign policy see all the advantages and benefits that could arise from the normalization of relations with Armenia. New transport connections could be established, Turkey could become a player in the South Caucasus, and the normalization of relations with Armenia could positively impact Turkey-US relations, particularly with Congress, and so on.

“They take these interests into account. However, Turkey's foreign policy is currently evidently driven by the presidency and Mr. Erdogan, and he is now waiting for signals from Baku. In my opinion, even if a small, one-page agreement is signed between Baku and Yerevan, that would be enough for Ankara. But this is a very optimistic scenario, and unfortunately, it really depends on Baku,” the expert concluded.