The Most Likely Outcome Will Be a Significant Influx of People to Armenia, Broers Says

Azerbaijani officials state that Azerbaijan is a multi-ethnic state, which includes other minorities that have similar rights. However, I believe it should be remembered that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are not like other minorities. This was stated by Dr. Lawrence Broers, director of the Caucasus program at Conciliation Resources based in London, in an interview with “Azatutyun.”

“They have a specific history of conflicts and have significant security concerns. Therefore, I think that their reintegration into Azerbaijan will require painstaking negotiations, transitional measures, really thoughtful security guarantees, and so on. Meanwhile, we see that these negotiations are happening after extremely brutal and disproportionate episodes of violence. Thus, I think the issue is trust. Azerbaijan's proclaimed commitments are not perceived as credible by a wide range of the Armenian population,” mentioned the expert.

According to Broers, the most likely outcome that we will see in the coming weeks and months is a significant outflow of people to Armenia: “And here arises the question of how prepared and capable Armenia is to accept these people.”

He noted that based on what we have witnessed in recent days, weeks, and months, it is not clear to him that Azerbaijan genuinely wants the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh to remain: “This is going to be a headache for the government. And it does not align with the type and structure of the Azerbaijani regime. So I think we are more likely to see encouragement of migration to Armenia from Baku.”

“Of course, the stay or departure of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh is also, unfortunately, a matter of geopolitical calculations and is related to the continuation of Russian presence. If there are no Armenians left in Nagorno-Karabakh, there will no longer be justification for the presence of Russian peacekeepers,” the expert stated.

According to him, it is in Russia's interest to maintain at least a symbolic presence of Armenians in the region. “But Azerbaijan is also looking forward to 2025, when Azerbaijan and Armenia will have to decide whether to extend or not the mandate of Russian peacekeepers. Azerbaijan aims, if not to completely abandon Russian peacekeepers, at least to sharply reduce the nature and scope of the Russian mission. Therefore, I think that in the coming weeks and months, we will see even more population movements,” Broers concluded.