It Could Last 2 Weeks: Azerbaijan Talks About New Military Operation Against Artsakh

The Azerbaijani news agency Turan's political editor, Shahin Hajiyev, has published an article discussing the potential military actions by Azerbaijan against Nagorno-Karabakh, the anticipated scale of aggression, possible directions of attack, and the international response. This information is reported by Radar Armenian.

Hajiyev noted that Azerbaijan's goal is to 'cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh of illegal Armenian military formations.' From Hajiyev's article, it appears that Azerbaijan is considering a direct military operation, citing the dispersion of the Artsakh Defense Army (ADA) as triggering a war. According to Hajiyev, there are several directions for potential attacks: Martakert, Askeran, and Stepanakert.

The main focus of the strike, according to the journalist, will be the heavily fortified Martakert area, followed by the Martuni region, with an assault from Shushi encircling Stepanakert. The capture of strategic positions in Parukh has allowed Azerbaijan to launch uninterrupted attacks towards Askeran, cutting the Martakert-Stepanakert road.

According to Hajiyev's forecast, a potential war could last at least two weeks and end with Azerbaijan's victory, considering that Armenia will be unable to provide assistance to the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is completely deprived of both food supplies and any technical means of support, particularly fuel necessary for the movement of vehicles due to the blockade.

Hajiyev’s assessments regarding the reaction and role of the international community are particularly interesting. According to the Turan editor, the likelihood of third-party intervention in the situation is low. He stated, 'Russian peacekeepers are too few and physically incapable of preventing several thousand Azerbaijani special forces. Moreover, peacekeepers have long understood that all issues are resolved behind closed doors between Baku and Moscow.'

As for the West, it does not have the physical capability to obstruct or deter Azerbaijan. The biggest challenge for Baku will be international criticism and possibly some sanctions.