"On September 25, 2020, I was informed that the likelihood of war was 30%" - Pashinyan

During today’s session of the parliamentary inquiry commission, Andranik Kocharyan inquired of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan whether the National Security Service (NSS) and intelligence had concrete information about the impending war, including approximate dates, forces, and details.

Kocharyan also noted that the then Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Onik Gasparyan, had stated in the inquiry commission that the armed forces were being partially brought to a state of first-degree preparedness, based on the information received by radio communications regarding the pilots of the "F16" fighters, indicating their participation in an important event the following day.

Pashinyan confirmed that he had received information on the 25th of September, stating: "But our institutions assessed the likelihood of war at 30% until the 25th, and this assessment was based not only on intelligence but also on various other data, including communications with international partners. I was also informed that the likelihood of war is 30%, and under those circumstances, there exists a possibility that this could be a psychological pressure on the political power to make disproportionate concessions,” Pashinyan said, adding that he would provide further information on this topic behind closed doors.

Kristine Poghosyan, a member of the ruling Civil Contract faction, also asked whether the aforementioned issue had been discussed with their strategic ally, as they have a larger intelligence service.

Pashinyan responded that he had not personally discussed this topic, but mentioned that he had been informed several times that Armenia's international partners also considered the war unlikely and called for Armenian armed forces not to undertake aggressive actions in order to avoid provoking war from "thin air": "I believe the report of the General Staff was also influenced by this information. I want to be open and honest—I personally did not agree with that assessment. Of course, my instruction has always been to ensure high vigilance,” Pashinyan stated.