Impact of Resuming Flights Between Georgia and Russia on Armenian Aviation Market

The Armenian aviation sector is currently assessing the potential damage caused by the resumption of air communication between Russia and Georgia and the subsequent decrease in passenger traffic at Armenian airports. It is already clear that this situation will negatively affect Armenian carriers.

Russia suspended aviation communication with Georgia in July 2019, at which point airlines found alternative options for flights, transiting through other countries. Flights operating through Yerevan became highly demanded in the Moscow-Yerevan-Tbilisi route. At that time, the frequency of flights from Armenian airlines on the Yerevan-Tbilisi-Yerevan route increased several times, rising from 5 to 10-20 daily flights.

Although the first flight between Moscow and Tbilisi occurred on May 19, cancellations of flights from Yerevan to the Georgian capital have already begun in Armenia. Mainly, flights that served as a transit link between Georgian and Russian cities through Yerevan have been suspended.

One of the first to cancel its flights was the Armenian carrier “Air Dilijans.” Starting from May 22, the airline has canceled all flights on the Yerevan-Tbilisi-Yerevan route. The company will conduct its last flight from Tbilisi to Yerevan on the morning of May 22.

“From May 22, we are canceling the flights from Yerevan to Tbilisi for the next 10 days for commercial reasons,” the airline informed Sputnik Armenia.

Thus, around 10 flights on the Yerevan-Tbilisi-Yerevan route have been canceled. However, “Air Dilijans” does not rule out the possibility of operating direct flights from Yerevan to Tbilisi in the future, noting that everything depends on demand.

The situation is more stable with “Fly Arna,” another airline that also operates flights to the Georgian capital. Representatives of the airline told Sputnik Armenia that they are monitoring the situation, but at the moment, the resumption of flights has not affected their operations.

“We are conducting monitoring to understand what potential impact it could have on us. Currently, there are no cancellations or changes in the flight schedule,” the airline stated.

“Fly Arna” clarified that aviation is a dynamically developing sector and that the resumption of flights between Russia and Georgia could have various consequences. If transit flights prove more advantageous for passengers, the demand for flights through Yerevan may remain at previous levels.

Likewise, the same scenario applies to another carrier, “FlyOne Armenia.” In any case, they do not have cancellations of flights in that direction in the coming days.

The Civil Aviation Administration mentioned in an interview with Sputnik Armenia that the resumption of flights between Russia and Georgia would affect the number of flights operated by Armenian carriers via Yerevan. However, they could not provide an exact assessment.

“It will have consequences, but the extent and nature of those consequences are currently difficult to specify,” stated officials from the Civil Aviation Committee.

The Committee emphasized that much depends on the airlines themselves: if the flights are profitable, they will continue to operate at previous frequencies; otherwise, carriers might reduce the number of flights or potentially exit the market altogether.

It is worth noting that the ban on air communication between Russia and Georgia has been in effect since July 8, 2019. This was the third time flights between the two countries had been halted. The first interruption occurred in October 2006 amid a scandal surrounding the arrest of Russian soldiers in Georgia, accused of espionage by the Georgian side. The second suspension occurred in August 2008 following events in South Ossetia, and the third was linked to anti-Russian protests organized by the opposition, which were sparked by the participation of State Duma deputy Sergey Gavrilov in the International Convention of Orthodoxy in Georgia.