Ukraine's Spring Counteroffensive Carries Huge Risks: NYT

Ukraine is preparing to launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces as early as next month, amidst significant risks. The New York Times reports, citing U.S. officials.

It is noted that without a decisive victory, Western support for Ukraine may wane, putting Kyiv under increasing pressure to engage in serious negotiations about ending or freezing the conflict.

The U.S. and NATO allies have provided Ukraine with a substantial amount of artillery and ammunition for the upcoming battles, and now officials hope that these supplies will be sufficient.

Meanwhile, it is expected that Ukrainian 12 combat brigades, each consisting of about 4,000 soldiers, will be ready by the end of April, according to Pentagon documents, which also hint at Kyiv's timeline. The documents state that the U.S. and NATO allies are preparing nine such brigades.

According to the outlet, although Ukraine shares little detail about its operational plans with American officials, the operation is likely to unfold in the southern part of the country, including along Ukraine's coastline by the Sea of Azov, near the Crimea annexed by Russia.

“Everything depends on this counteroffensive,” says former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and senior NATO official Alexander Vershbow. “Everyone is hopeful, perhaps overly optimistic. But it will determine whether the Ukrainians can achieve a worthwhile outcome in terms of reclaiming territory on the battlefield and creating much more leverage for some sort of diplomatic settlement.”

While Ukrainian officials state that their goal is to break through entrenched Russian defenses and create a massive collapse of the Russian army, U.S. officials believe that the offensive is unlikely to result in a rapid shift in momentum in Ukraine's favor.