Four Scenarios for the Development of War in Ukraine: The New York Times

The New York Times discusses four scenarios regarding the development of the war that are being explored by American intelligence. This document comes from a leak of confidential Pentagon papers.

American intelligence is considering four possible unexpected scenarios that could affect the course of the war. The first scenario is the death of Vladimir Putin, the second is the death of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The third scenario involves a change in the Russian military leadership, while the fourth concerns a potential "Ukrainian strike on the Kremlin." The document notes that these scenarios could significantly influence the course of the war, or they may not have any effect at all. Furthermore, they could lead to either escalation or peace negotiations that would end the conflict.

The publication reports that Washington is most concerned about the "Ukrainian strike on the Kremlin" scenario (the document lacks detailed description of it), as it could provoke a sharp escalation from Russia, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. However, this strike could also, according to intelligence, necessitate negotiations for Putin.

The document does not provide an assessment of how likely any of these scenarios are.

Presumed confidential documents began appearing on various internet forums in early March and initially went largely unnoticed. However, it later became clear that conclusions could be drawn about the state of the Russian and Ukrainian armies and, in particular, the inadequate preparation for a future Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Moreover, some data showed obvious signs of manipulation, notably underestimating Russian losses while overestimating Ukrainian ones. At the same time, over 100 documents have appeared online, containing information not only about Ukraine but also about China, the Indo-Pacific region, and the Middle East.