Interesting developments are taking place in our region in recent days, says international expert

International relations expert Suren Sargsyan wrote on his Facebook page: “In recent days, quite interesting developments have been taking place in our region and beyond, which could have a significant impact on Armenia. Two days ago, a historic agreement was signed regarding the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with China being the 'godfather' of this agreement. One should not think that an atmosphere of trust will immediately be established between the two states; however, I am confident that the Chinese mediation will also provide certain guarantees to both sides and serve as a buffer.

For Iran, this is an opportunity to allocate its already limited resources more efficiently, especially considering the increasing appetite of Azerbaijan and Turkey against Iran's interests in South Caucasus, particularly in Syunik. Essentially, with this move, China is positioning itself not only as a global economy but also as a global mediator in major conflicts such as the Iran-Saudi Arabia conflict. Until now, the main 'godfather' of such large-scale reconciliation processes in the Middle East has always been the United States.

Washington has remained quite restrained in its statements regarding this initiative; however, it is evident that this does not align with Washington and Israel's policy of isolating Iran. Moreover, Saudi Arabia is considered one of America's most reliable allies in the Middle East against Iran. Interestingly, there is a well-founded opinion among certain circles in Washington that Iran's potential role is indispensable for a more effective counterbalance against China and that the United States should normalize relations with Iran for this purpose as well. We should not forget that containing China's growing influence is the top foreign priority and challenge for the Biden administration.

It turns out that China has stepped ahead in this regard and acted more swiftly. By bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia into its playing field, it complicates Washington’s efforts and deprives it of the possibility to form a coalition on two fronts against it. This does not mean at all that Saudi Arabia will change its role and significance for Washington or vice versa; however, there will be a different positioning towards Beijing and guarantees from it regarding Tehran.

Let’s talk about Iran. There is certainly no illusion that Iran has permanently solved its problems in the Middle East and that everything is now in order; however, it is significant that on the same day, Iran’s military aircraft conducted flights and reportedly violated Azerbaijan's airspace. This was, of course, a demonstrative demarche since Iran could have acquired information about those areas in other ways without sending an aircraft into the air. In reality, this shows Azerbaijan and Turkey that Iran has additional diplomatic guarantees and more accessible resources to counter this tandem in South Caucasus.

We will keep an eye on the developments.”