Russia Depletes Equipment and Personnel Stockpiles in War Against Ukraine, ISW Reports

The war Russia is waging against Ukraine has tremendously depleted its supplies of equipment and personnel necessary for a new offensive in the east. The inability to quickly recover lost armored vehicles further hampers operational maneuverability.

This is stated in a new report by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which indicates that Ukrainian soldiers have better prospects for successful counteroffensives with the support of Western technology.

The previously established inability of Russian forces to carry out effective offensives was confirmed by UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. Referring to his country’s intelligence, Wallace noted that "there is currently no concentration of the Russian Federation's joint forces to make a breakthrough in a major offensive."

According to Wallace, Russia can engage up to 97% of its army in the war against Ukraine. He also mentioned that the combat capability of the Russian army has decreased by 40%.

"ISW cannot verify Wallace's assessments; however, his observation that Russia lacks mechanized combat power to breach Ukraine's defenses aligns with our previous assessments, which indicate that the Russian Armed Forces must undergo significant transformation before regaining the capacity to conduct effective maneuver warfare," the analysts stated.

At the same time, the experts agreed with the British Minister's claim that Russia does not possess usable reserves for a large-scale offensive that have yet to be deployed.

According to estimates from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia has lost approximately 50% of its T-72B and T-72B3M tanks and many T-80s, forcing its troops to rely on older vehicles.

ISW believes that the Russian defense industry can no longer return to rapid and large-scale tank production and thus cannot influence the outcome of a new Russian offensive or a Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian army will further diminish its combat readiness if Ukraine timely receives Western tanks and armored vehicles.

"Ukraine may carry out large-scale counteroffensives in the coming months. But its ability to do so will likely depend heavily on the speed and scale at which the West supplies it with necessary equipment, especially tanks and armored vehicles," the analysts concluded.