Birth Rates in Armenia Are Dangerous, Says Armen Muradyan

The demographic situation in Armenia poses urgent challenges that require effective, timely, and coordinated responses, which is one of the most significant issues for the state and society, writes Armen Muradyan, rector of Yerevan State Medical University.

“Heratsi” analytics is launching a series of publications dedicated to demographic issues, aimed at promoting a unified understanding of the relevance of demographic challenges among the public. Birth rates are crucial for population growth. Recently, a report from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs indicates that the trend of declining birth rates is global, with two-thirds of the world's population living in countries where the total fertility rate is below 2.1, considered the minimum threshold for simple population reproduction. In the European region, which includes Armenia, the rate stands at 1.5.

The total fertility rate in Armenia is 1.656, significantly lower than the simple reproduction level of 2.1 for over two decades, which poses a risk for the future natural reduction of the country's population. It is worth noting that the Armenian rate is also lower than those of neighboring countries; for instance, Azerbaijan is at 1.86 and Georgia at 1.75.

According to data from the Statistical Committee, 36,585 children were born in Armenia in 2021, which is slightly higher than previous years but 1,115 lower than the number of births in 2017. It is also noteworthy that the negative dynamics of birth rates have persisted for over 30 years, except for a brief period in the 2000s, with the number of births in 1990 exceeding those in 2021 by around 2.2 times.

According to forecasts from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, one of the most authoritative institutions dealing with demographic issues, the number of births in Armenia could drop to 24,000 by 2050, with the total fertility rate dropping to 1.6. As a result of these and several other factors, the country’s population could be around 2.6 million in 30 years. Of course, these are predictions based largely on current developments, and with a professional and comprehensive approach to the issue, it is within our power to alter negative trends and make the coming decades a period of population growth,” stated Muradyan.