Deception is Futile: Real Pressure on Aliyev Comes Exclusively from the USA and a Little from Iran, Says Suren Sargsyan

Currently, real pressure on Aliyev comes exclusively from the USA and a little from Iran. This opinion was expressed by international expert Suren Sargsyan on his Facebook page.

“The statements from the State Department and the White House are more targeted, and the subtext is clearer. They are making it clear to Aliyev that the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is not considered resolved in the USA, and they know who the instigator of military actions is. Naturally, none of this is done for our beautiful eyes or splendid diplomacy. The USA has its own regional interests, the democratic administration has its own,” Sargsyan noted.

“Moreover, the USA is not pleased with Aliyev’s inadequate behavior and statements directed towards the Minsk Group and specifically towards the US co-chairmanship. The Americans are explaining to Aliyev that he is not the one who decides what the future of the Minsk Group should be.”

“The US President receives intelligence reports from dozens of agencies every morning (literally), containing information and analyses from various corners of the world concerning American interests. This means that no military vehicle from any country can cross another country's border unnoticed. Therefore, deception is futile; the USA has more intelligence operatives than Azerbaijan has residents, making Aliyev's information diversions insignificant for superpowers.”

“As for phone conversations, experience shows that public diplomatic formulations are usually milder than the transcripts of phone calls. It is significant that the Americans are appointing co-chairs, recognizing that the other co-chair is Russia, meaning they are also willing to cooperate with Russia.”

“Here, Armenia's position on the Minsk Group is crucial. If Armenia also wants to bury the Minsk Group like Azerbaijan, it means this will make the process twice as easy,” he added. “Regarding Tehran, Iran's statements naturally concern Aliyev, and I do not rule out that refraining from actions in the direction of Nakhchivan might be related to this.”