When Does Azerbaijan Plan a Full-Scale War? Hoghikyan

Azerbaijan aims to seize vital heights in the territory of Artsakh to easily capture Artsakh in the event of a full-scale war in 2025. This was stated by regional affairs expert Nairi Hoghikyan during a meeting with journalists on August 4.

According to him, even if the land connection between the Republic of Armenia and Artsakh had been altered via the route currently being constructed—from Kornidzor to the Berdadzor area, including the villages of Mets Shen and Hin Shen—the situation in Artsakh would remain unchanged.

“Since August 1, Azerbaijan has attempted to conduct local attacks in several directions, and these local attacks are supported by long-range battles primarily utilizing mortar fire. Intelligence indicates that Azerbaijan's frontline troops are currently armed with light-class weapons. This suggests that Azerbaijan does not have the inclination or capacity for a large-scale war,” said Hoghikyan.

He added that recent assessments of Azerbaijan’s heavy military equipment revealed that they have not yet been able to replace the equipment lost during the 2020 war, estimating that Azerbaijan lost over 75% of its heavy military equipment in that conflict.

According to Nairi Hoghikyan, leading up to the meeting between the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Azerbaijan, with Turkey's consent, is employing a strategy of “blackmail.” “Azerbaijan's primary targets are the heights located in the territory of Artsakh. In recent days, Azerbaijan has been striving to capture several key heights, one of which is the Narestar height, situated in the western-central part of Artsakh. During the same period, they attempted to seize the Haterk height and just yesterday attempted to capture a height near Eghzakhogh, referred to by Azerbaijanis as Saribaba. This height is of significant importance; if Azerbaijan gains control over it, the entire area around Shushi will fall under their control,” he stated.

It is noted that starting from 09:00 on August 1, Azerbaijani forces attempted provocations in several areas of the northern and northwestern border zones of the Republic of Artsakh, making attempts to breach the contact line, which were thwarted by the armed forces of the Artsakh Defense Army. As a result of these provocations, the Armenian side suffered one injury, a soldier from the Defense Army named Albert Vladiki Bakhshiyan.

Azerbaijan's provocations continued the day before, on August 3, starting from 09:00. Azerbaijani armed forces grossly violated the ceasefire regime, targeting Defense Army positions and the permanent deployment site of one of the units, employing various calibers of firearms as well as mortars, grenade launchers, and strike UAVs, resulting in the deaths of contract servicemen Gurgen Galeri Gabrielyan and Arthur Yuri Khachatryan. In addition, 19 servicemen were injured.

Measures are being taken in cooperation with the command of the Russian peacekeeping contingent deployed in Artsakh to stabilize the situation. The Defense Army reported that as of the night of August 3 to 4, and at 09:00 in the morning, the operational-tactical situation along the contact line is relatively stable.

It should be noted that today, during a government meeting, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the situation in Artsakh, stating that Armenia is ready to ensure the connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. “Yes, we are ready to ensure that connection even today. It is Azerbaijan that does not utilize the opportunities we provide. We reiterate that according to RA legislation, as per the legal framework, let us cross the border of Armenia and go to Azerbaijan,” the Prime Minister specifically said.

Pashinyan also mentioned that Azerbaijan is using the issue of the new route of the Lachin corridor, which currently lacks a tripartite plan. “At this moment, there is no approved tripartite plan from Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, and we have suggested this several times and are offering it again, that is, to confirm a tripartite plan,” Pashinyan stated.