Today in Tehran, the Fate of Armenia and the Armenian People Will Be Decided: Arthur Ghazinyan

Former opposition MP Arthur Ghazinyan writes: "Today in Tehran, the fate of Armenia and the Armenian people will be decided. The presidents of Iran, Russia, and Turkey will meet in Tehran, while the heads of the foreign intelligence services of the US, Iran, and Russia have already arrived in Armenia.

Iran has announced that it is already ready to prepare nuclear weapons and possesses all the necessary technologies. Azerbaijan is confirming strategic energy cooperation with the EU, committing to increase the volumes of oil and gas exported to Europe, thereby reducing Europe’s energy dependence on Moscow.

It was also announced that in the coming months, an agreement on strategic partnership with the EU will be signed. The aspirations of Turkey and Azerbaijan towards Syunik and other areas and infrastructures of Armenia continue, considering this moment a historical opportunity to finally resolve the Armenian question and cleanse the region of Armenians.

All these facts indicate that the question of the balance of power in the South Caucasus and the fate of Armenia is being determined at this moment, where we are not at the negotiating table, but on it. The only obstacle to the final realization of Azerbaijan and Turkey’s goals is the still significant Russian factor in the region or, more precisely, the presence of Russian armed forces in Artsakh and Armenia.

The interests of the US, EU, UK, Turkey, and Azerbaijan have coincided in the question of neutralizing Russia’s regional influence, which contrasts with the interests of Russia and Iran. Neither Russia nor Iran are ready to make concessions, as evidenced by the statement made by Sergey Narishkin, the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, in Yerevan and the preparation for signing an agreement on strategic cooperation between Russia and Iran.

If you noticed, nothing was said about Armenia’s interests, as the entity on the table cannot be a subject of the processes; it acts in the status of an object, while Armenia’s de jure authorities actually operate within the realm of serving Turkish-Azerbaijani interests.

If the leaders of the three countries fail to establish a new status quo today in Tehran, we should expect a new, much larger regional war. Considering the fact that the parties have set the highest benchmark of demands and are not ready to concede, it is highly likely that establishing a new status quo will not succeed.

Note: Once again, the geopolitical axiom is confirmed: if you choose disgrace in a war and disgrace, you will get both disgrace and war...