What Weather is Expected in July

The Hydro-Meteorological and Monitoring Center reports on the climatic characteristics and monthly forecast for July 2022.

During July, the climatic conditions are significantly influenced by the hot and dry air masses coming from the tropical latitudes, which result in a notable increase in air temperature. Cyclonic activity in the territory of the republic decreases significantly, leading to a considerable reduction in precipitation compared to June. Especially in the valley and pre-mountainous areas of the republic, dry and hot climatic conditions settle in.

The average monthly temperature in the Ararat Valley, the pre-mountainous regions of Vayots Dzor, and the valleys of Syunik ranges from +25 to +27°C, in Tavush it is +18 to +22°C, in Lori +16 to +18°C, and in mountainous areas between +15 to +20°C.

During the penetration of tropical hot air currents, the absolute maximum temperature recorded in the republic occurred on July 31, 2011, in Meghri at +43.7°C, followed by +42.6°C in Ararat on July 29, 2017, and +42.0°C in Yerevan.

In mountainous areas, July is relatively cool, with maximum temperatures not exceeding +32 to +35°C. The hottest Julys were observed in 1949, 1962, 1980, 1989, 2000, 2010, 2011, and 2017, when the average monthly temperature was 2-3 degrees higher than normal, and the maximum temperatures in the Ararat Valley and valleys of Syunik ranged around +39 to +41°C for 5-7 consecutive days. The coolest Julys were noted in 1946, 1967, 1969, 1995, and 2009, with average monthly temperatures 2-3 degrees lower than normal, and maximum temperatures in the valley regions of the republic not exceeding +34 to +35°C.

In certain years, humid and cold air masses from the Black Sea may intensify in July, causing a drop in air temperature and significant precipitation. Humid Julys were observed in 1985, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012, when monthly precipitation amounted to 150-300% of the norm. Extremely dry Julys were noted in 1973, 1978, 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2006, when no precipitation was recorded in the valley areas of the republic throughout the month.

The relative humidity of the air in July is quite high in mountainous regions, ranging from 60-70%, and above 80% in high mountainous areas. In the Ararat Valley and the pre-mountainous regions of Vayots Dzor, it does not exceed 44-55%. On specific days in Yerevan, the relative humidity can drop to 20%, and during the daytime, it can fall to as low as 5%.

In July, the number of clear days significantly increases, with 14-15 days in the Ararat Valley, and the duration of sunshine reaches its maximum value. There is a sharp decrease in precipitation, averaging 49 mm across the republic, but the distribution is very uneven. The highest amounts are observed in Lori, with 55-75 mm, while the lowest amounts are in the Ararat Valley and Syunik, at 10-15 mm. The number of rainy days is also unevenly distributed, with 13-15 days in Lori and 4-5 days in the Ararat Valley. There are years when no precipitation is recorded in July in the Ararat Valley.

The frequency of thunderstorms decreases in July. In the Ararat Valley, thunderstorms are observed for 5-6 days, and in mountainous areas, including the basin of Lake Sevan, for 10-12 days. In the valley areas, where mountain-valley circulation develops, wind speed increases, especially in the evening hours. In the Ararat Valley and Yerevan, maximum wind speeds can reach 20-22 m/s or more. The Ararat Valley frequently experiences khorşak, which are dry and hot winds that disrupt the water balance of plants.

Among the dangerous weather phenomena in July, hail, torrential rains, and strong winds may occur. On July 10, 2016, a severe hailstorm was observed in the Armavir region lasting about 30 minutes, considered the most intense in the entire meteorological history, with hailstones measuring 4-5 cm in diameter, damaging roofs, greenhouses, and causing significant harm to orchards and vegetable crops.

In Yerevan, on July 2, after noon, brief rain and thunderstorms are possible in certain areas of the city. From July 3-7, dry weather is expected. During the evening hours and thunderstorms, wind intensification is also anticipated, with speeds of 15-20 m/s.

Across the republic, on July 2 during the day, and on July 3-4 at night and after noon, brief rain and thunderstorms are expected in certain regions. From July 5-7, dry weather is anticipated. Hail is also possible in certain areas. Wind from the southeast at 2-5 m/s, with a forecasted wind intensification during thunderstorms reaching speeds of 17-22 m/s. In the Ararat Valley, evening wind intensification of 15-20 m/s is expected. The air temperature is expected to gradually decrease by 3-5 degrees from July 2-4, and by 8-10 degrees in Syunik and Artsakh.