Aliyev Has Debts That Must Be Repaid: Suren Sargsyan

Aliyev has debts that must be repaid: With his victory, he owes Turkey, Israel, Pakistan, and more. They will not ask him for money. Israel will want clear actions against Iran, Turkey will want actions against Russia, and Pakistan will seek actions against India. This was stated by international expert Suren Sargsyan on his Facebook page.

“There is a process of forming a Modern Ottoman Empire. There is also a process of forming a Muffled State, and both will try to drag Azerbaijan into their sphere of influence. In other words, Aliyev will have to 'sacrifice' someone in the end. During the formation of these empires, the most complex battlefield of Turkish-Russian competition will be Azerbaijan (the issue of Kazakhstan seems to have been resolved, undermining the project of Turkic World). Russia will initially try to pull Azerbaijan into the EEU, while Turkey will try to prevent that.

Revolutions and coup attempts in both the Arab and Turkic worlds have a high probability (see Kazakhstan and numerous coup attempts in Turkey).

Let Aliyev not be more dictator or smarter than any leader of Arab countries. If Gaddafi, Mubarak were overthrown, surely Aliyev is not a stronger figure.

I agree with experts that today there is no consensus among internal or external players (or Consensus-1) for a revolution in Azerbaijan. But Aliyev must make a clear choice, or others will make it for him,” Sargsyan wrote.