It’s Clear: Suren Sargsyan on the Events in Kazakhstan

Political scientist Suren Sargsyan wrote on his Facebook page: "The international context of the Kazakh revolution. The Kazakh revolution has toppled the de facto president of the country, Nazarbayev.

1. Now, if Tokayev retains his position (it seems everything is heading in that direction), it will be mainly thanks to Russia. This means being almost as dependent on Russia as Belarus is. Incidentally, it is due to Russia that Tokayev has gained unlimited power, and he is currently the main beneficiary of the revolution.

2. At least for now, Kazakhstan has essentially severed ties with the Turkic world and become an area of influence for the Russian world (see Turkey’s stance on the need to create pan-Turkic military forces). Naturally, this situation also complicates Turkey’s cards on the path to establishing a neo-Ottoman empire (see the joint hysteria between Turkey and Azerbaijan).

3. If Russia were to lose Kazakhstan, it would also lose the EAEU, because without Kazakhstan, the author and second economy of the EAEU, that structure would not exist. Moreover, an unstable Kazakhstan poses a serious challenge to the implementation of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, and in this regard, I believe Russia has the full support of China to stabilize the situation at all costs (see the message from the Chinese president).

One thing is clear: Regardless of who raises the revolutionary wave, what matters is who can capture that wave in a timely manner and take their share of the benefits.”