There Will Be No Large-Scale War Between Iran and Azerbaijan at This Time, Says Arman Abovyan

Former MP Arman Abovyan wrote on his Facebook page: “It is interesting to observe the reaction of the Armenian public who joyfully watches as Iran methodically pressures Azerbaijan. But it is necessary to point out two essential points.

1. There will be NO large-scale war between Iran and Azerbaijan at THIS TIME, which definitely does not rule out local border incidents.

2. The entire noise regarding military exercises near the Iran-Azerbaijan border, threats and pressures concerning Baku is aimed at the strict marking of two 'red lines' by the Iranians. This is about the potential use of Azerbaijani territory by Israel to strike Iran, and it is unacceptable for the Iranians to transfer the logistic hub in Syunik to the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem. I repeat, the likelihood of Iranian invasion in the territories of Artsakh occupied by Turks + the Khudafarin reservoir + parts of Nakhichevan is nearly zero at THIS TIME.

However, considering the coincidence of positions of the main peacekeepers (besides Turkey and Azerbaijan) and Iran regarding key issues of the political architecture of the region, it is likely that, for example, the regional 'great powers' will discuss the deployment of Iranian military observers in the problematic areas of Syunik and Artsakh.

Iran will at least ensure an official military-diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus, which will already be a significant achievement for them as a result of this 'bloom'.

Once again, I emphasize that the Armenian government must actively engage in politics now, as the entire regional bargaining revolves around the territories of Armenia and Artsakh. Otherwise, the current authorities will also leave the window of opportunities open, and then we will once again face the complete disregard for Armenia's interests and threats to the country.