Turkey's President's 'Revelation' Cannot Be a Result of Naivety or Simplicity: Norair Norikyan

The President of the "Just Armenia" party and lawyer Norair Norikyan addressed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's statement that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made an offer to meet him through the Prime Minister of Georgia.

Norikyan specifically wrote: "Pashinyan's 'Secret' Proposal and Erdoğan's 'Revelation': Who is Solving What Problem?" Erdoğan's announcement yesterday, suggesting that Pashinyan offered to meet him through the Georgian Prime Minister, left a bombshell effect in Armenia's political circles. Indeed, the content of the announcement and the chosen timing have geopolitical significance, especially in the context of the ongoing process of resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict with Russia's direct involvement.

It is clear that the Turkish President's 'revelation' cannot be a result of naivety or simplicity. It is evident that Erdoğan is pursuing the interests of his state with this revelation, attempting to provide a qualitatively new content to his country’s political stance in the region, showing that they have a decisive voice.

However, there is a need for serious study and analysis to understand why Nikol Pashinyan chose the idea of presenting his proposal for a meeting with Erdoğan through the Georgian Prime Minister, especially considering that it could also have been conveyed through the Russian President, given the nature of Putin-Erdoğan relations.

Perhaps Pashinyan is trying to demonstrate, including to Turkey, that he is an independent player and conducts a self-sufficient and independent foreign policy, yet, given the historical context, it is almost excluded that Nikol Pashinyan would undertake such a process without Russia's knowledge, especially via the Georgian Prime Minister, considering the current state of relations between Russia and Georgia, as well as the West's influence over Georgia's political establishment.

The nature of Armenian-Turkish relations and the prospects for their resolution are not such localized issues that this process could happen at an ultra-confidential level and hidden from Russia and the West. It is clear that geopolitical centers, particularly Russia, the US, and the EU, are at least informed about this process. In Russia's case, Lavrov literally stated a few days ago that it would be logical for Armenia and Turkey to resume efforts to normalize relations.

Nonetheless, a question arises about what purpose Erdoğan pursued by 'revealing' Pashinyan's proposal. The Turkish President is not so simple as to not understand that by disclosing this confidential information, he is first and foremost putting the Georgian Prime Minister in an awkward position, thereby creating an image of an unreliable partner regarding him in Armenia, as if the proposal was conveyed through Georgia, it was naturally assumed that the latter's leadership would do everything possible to maintain the proposal's confidentiality.

One of the hypotheses could be that Erdoğan, not entirely trusting either Russia or Armenia, and having received this proposal through Georgia, has indicated that no separate or independent step will be allowed in the region without Russia's involvement, meaning any process must be accompanied by Russia's direct engagement and consent, and he is loyal to the agreements made with Russia and will not breach them, thinking that the mentioned process is just a 'little mischief' of the Prime Ministers of Georgia and Armenia without Russia's knowledge.

Another hypothesis could be that, being aware that all geopolitical centers are well aware of this process, he is implying that the opportunity to establish relations with Armenia will depend on Turkey, and that they are also the ones dictating the agenda in our region.

One thing is for sure: tectonic political processes have begun in the region that will completely change the face and dynamics of development in the region.

P.S. On the relations between Armenia and Turkey or their absence on another occasion.