Did the Rating of Iskander Drop or Is It a Blackmail Tactic Against Russia? The Purpose of Aliyev’s Statement

In reality, the Iskander should not have been used in Shushi or anywhere in the Republic of Artsakh, because the Armed Forces of the Artsakh Republic do not possess the Iskander, which is only available in the arsenal of the Republic of Armenia. Essentially, if the Iskander is deployed in Artsakh, it creates major problems for Russia, as we all know that only Russia and Armenia have the Iskander, with the condition that Armenia should only use it on its own territory. This was stated by military expert Karen Hovhannisyan in an interview with ArmDaily.am, responding to Ilham Aliyev's claim that the Iskander was used in Shushi.

“The spread of news in Armenia stating that the Iskander was used was done either naively, out of ignorance, or perhaps intentionally. The issue here is not whether the Iskander was used or not, but rather the very fact that it was claimed to have been used. On the other hand, the Russian side has denied the fact of the Iskander's use. They indicated that during the 44-day war, the Iskander was not used at all, and it seemed that the issue was closed. However, now Azerbaijan, which has been conducting mine clearance operations in Shushi since December, has inexplicably only discovered the Iskander missile for the first time on March 15 and is now announcing it. This suggests that there is an attempt, perhaps even with the intervention of Turkey, to increase pressure on Russia through NATO by leveraging Azerbaijan's voice,” he noted.

According to him, the expectation from this blackmail is perhaps for Russia to minimize its military cooperation with Armenia. “This is not something Azerbaijan is expecting, but rather Turkey and NATO, who want to minimize Russia's role in the region, because if the use of the Iskander is confirmed, it would be scandalous and could have serious consequences. In any case, I believe that the purpose of this is also a mechanism to lower the rating of the Iskander, because if the Iskander was used and its use did not yield results, then essentially, this means that the reports about that weapon are inflated, a bubble. At the same time, if the Iskander was used with Russia's knowledge, then it turns out that Russia cannot have a mandate for peacekeeping activities. They could even reach the point of discussing the withdrawal of peacekeeping forces,” he concluded.